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European Oil Markets
27JUL

Houthis fire second barrage at Israel

2 min read
10:27UTC

The second Houthi missile and drone attack on Israel in a single day confirms staged escalation, with Bab al-Mandeb closure declared openly as the next step.

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EconomicDeveloping
Key takeaway

A second Houthi barrage in 24 hours confirms Iran's proxy network is activating in sequence.

The Houthis (Ansar Allah) fired their second missile and drone barrage at Israel on 29 March, following their first attack the previous day . Israeli military claimed interceptions; targets included what the Houthis described as "sensitive military sites" in southern Israel 1. Deputy information minister Mohammed Mansour has explicitly threatened Bab al-Mandeb closure as part of a staged escalation programme.

Tehran coordinated the timing. Houthi entry came the day after Pakistan confirmed US-Iran indirect talks had stalled and the day Iran published its five conditions . Two attacks in 24 hours is a demonstration of sustainable tempo, not a one-off provocation. The Long War Journal reports that Houthi leaders have conditioned further escalation on whether other nations join anti-Iran operations or use the Red Sea for strikes against Iran's allies.

The strategic problem is compounding. Hezbollah fired 600 projectiles at Israel on 28 March . The Houthis are now adding a second axis. Iran's proxy network is activating in sequence, each front requiring separate defensive resources from a coalition already stretched by the primary conflict.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

Yemen's Houthi movement, which controls most of northern Yemen including the Red Sea coast, is an Iranian-aligned armed group. On 28 March it fired its first missiles at Israel. Within 24 hours it fired a second wave. This matters because the Houthis also control the Bab al-Mandeb strait, the other end of the Red Sea from Hormuz. They have now explicitly threatened to close it. The situation in brief: Iran controls one end of the Gulf-to-Red Sea shipping corridor through Hormuz. Its Houthi allies may be about to close the other end at Bab al-Mandeb.

Deep Analysis
Root Causes

The Houthi activation followed Pakistan's confirmation that indirect US-Iran talks had stalled. Tehran appears to have calibrated proxy activation against the diplomacy clock: when talks collapsed, the proxy network activated. This suggests a deliberate coercive strategy rather than autonomous Houthi decision-making.

The Houthis have their own motivations that partially overlap with Tehran's. Bab al-Mandeb closure would be the single largest expression of Houthi strategic power and a recruiting and fundraising windfall domestically in Yemen.

Sources:International Maritime Organisation / UKMTO·International Maritime Organisation / UKMTO·Al Jazeera
Mentions:Israel →Pakistan →Iran →Bab al-Mandeb →Houthis →Mohammed Mansour →
First Reported In

Update #51 · Iran hits aluminium plants; Hormuz emptying

International Maritime Organisation / UKMTO· 29 Mar 2026
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Causes and effects
Caused by
Houthis strike Israel for the first time
The second Houthi barrage on 29 March directly follows the first attack on 28 March, confirming staged escalation declared by Mansour.
Occurred 28 Mar 2026
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This Event
Houthis fire second barrage at Israel
Houthi entry transforms the conflict from a bilateral US-Iran war into a multi-front regional contest, with the world's second most important oil chokepoint now explicitly threatened.
Led to
Houthis strike Israel for third day
The second Houthi barrage on 29 March (ID:1686) was followed by a third consecutive attack on 30 March, confirming sustainable operational tempo not a one-off provocation.
Occurred 30 Mar 2026
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Different Perspectives
Asian buyers (India, Japan, China, South Korea)
Asian buyers (India, Japan, China, South Korea)
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Russia / Lukoil
Russia / Lukoil
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European Union / Council
European Union / Council
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Freight and tanker desks
Freight and tanker desks
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Mediterranean refiners (Sines, Trieste, Augusta)
Mediterranean refiners (Sines, Trieste, Augusta)
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Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia
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