Skip to content
You can now search across every topic, entity and event.What's new
European Energy Markets
27JUL

Trump declares Iran deal, signs nothing

4 min read
09:24UTC

Trump posted on Saturday 23 May that the Iran war deal was 'largely negotiated' and Hormuz 'will be opened'; the only paper the White House signed all weekend was a Memorial Day proclamation.

EconomicDeveloping
Key takeaway

Trump declared the war nearly settled, yet signed no Iran instrument and published no text.

Donald Trump posted on Truth Social on Saturday 23 May that a deal to end the Iran war had been "largely negotiated" between the United States, the Islamic Republic of Iran and other listed countries, adding that the strait of Hormuz "will be opened" 1. the strait is the 33-kilometre chokepoint between Iran and Oman through which roughly a fifth of the world's seaborne oil passes; Iran's blockade of it has driven this war since late February. It is the most consequential thing Trump has said about Iran in 86 days of fighting. He signed nothing.

The only presidential instrument The White House published across the 22 to 24 May window was a Memorial Day proclamation 2. No Iran order, no sanctions action, no Hormuz text. The verbal track that has carried this war since 28 February reached its loudest moment on a weekend that produced zero signed Iran paper , extending the streak that ran unbroken through the prior week's two non-Iran financial orders .

On Sunday 24 May, Axios reported the shape of what had been agreed 3. It is a 60-day memorandum of understanding (MOU), extendable by consent, not a treaty. During those 60 days Hormuz reopens toll-free, Iran clears its mines, the US lifts the naval blockade and issues waivers letting Tehran sell oil, while US forces stay in the region and withdraw only if a final deal follows. The draft rests on Iran's 14-point document and was approved on the Iranian side by Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and on the US side by JD Vance, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner 4. Marco Rubio, speaking in New Delhi, repeated the American conditions: no weapon, Hormuz open without tolls, uranium handed over 5.

The MOU text has not been published. The sequence front-loads the reversible concessions, blockade lift and oil waivers, and defers the one irreversible commitment, the uranium, to a later negotiation. That ordering lets Tehran collect sanctions and shipping relief across the 60 days while never binding itself to surrender the stockpile.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

On Saturday 23 May, US President Donald Trump posted on his social media platform Truth Social saying a deal to end the Iran war had been 'largely negotiated'. The next day, the news outlet Axios reported the shape of that deal: a 60-day temporary agreement (called a memorandum of understanding, or MOU) under which Iran would reopen the Strait of Hormuz (the critical sea passage through which about 20% of the world's oil flows), clear its naval mines from the waterway, and negotiate a pause on its nuclear programme. In exchange, the US would lift its naval blockade and issue waivers on some oil sanctions. The agreement would be approved on Iran's side by the Speaker of Iran's parliament, and on the US side by Vice President JD Vance and two presidential advisers. The catch: none of this has been formally signed. Trump made similar verbal deal announcements at least four times before this one, and Iran denied or contradicted each of them within hours. The MOU text was not published as of Sunday 24 May, leaving it as a reported verbal agreement rather than a binding document.

Deep Analysis
Root Causes

Trump's preference for verbal deal-making over signed instruments is a structural feature of his administration, not a tactical choice. The White House presidential-actions index recorded zero signed Iran instruments across 80 days of war before this declaration.

Truth Social posts function as policy statements in this administration because the executive can claim they represent presidential intent without triggering congressional notification requirements that a formal executive order or treaty would impose.

The Iranian side's use of Ghalibaf rather than Pezeshkian or Araghchi reflects a parallel constraint: the Majlis and IRGC institutional bloc must be included in any deal architecture, or hardliners can torpedo implementation. Ghalibaf bridges that bloc. But his approval is not the same as Khamenei's, and the Supreme Leader's uranium-stay directive three days earlier sits in direct tension with the MOU's enrichment-suspension commitment.

Escalation

Marginally de-escalatory on the military track but no change on the nuclear track. The MOU framework, if it holds, pauses kinetic activity and begins a Hormuz reopening. But Khamenei's uranium directive three days earlier means the nuclear gap has widened since the deal's reported terms were agreed. The deal declaration itself creates a new risk: if negotiations fail publicly, the reversion to conflict may be sharper than if no deal had been announced.

What could happen next?
  • Risk

    A failed public deal announcement carries greater escalation risk than no announcement, because domestic audiences on both sides will have raised expectations to manage.

    Short term · Assessed
  • Opportunity

    If the 60-day MOU holds through formal signing, it creates the first institutional anchor for a permanent settlement and removes the immediate military pressure on Hormuz.

    Medium term · Suggested
  • Precedent

    Ghalibaf's parliamentary approval of an MOU, if accepted by all parties, establishes that Iran's Majlis can bind the executive on foreign policy — a constitutional precedent with long-term implications for Iranian governance.

    Long term · Suggested
First Reported In

Update #106 · Trump says deal; OFAC says nothing

NBC News· 24 May 2026
Read original
Causes and effects
This Event
Trump declares Iran deal, signs nothing
The loudest verbal move of an 86-day war landed on a weekend that produced no signed Iran instrument of any kind.
Different Perspectives
Slovakia
Slovakia
Slovakia says it dropped its hold-out on the 21st sanctions package only after Ursula von der Leyen personally signed written gas-price and supply guarantees. The Council of the European Union's own 17,238-character release on the package names neither Slovakia nor any guarantee, leaving Bratislava's account unconfirmed by the institutional record.
EU regulator on capacity mechanisms
EU regulator on capacity mechanisms
Brussels is watching Germany's StromVKG first 4.5 GW capacity auction move toward its 8 September bid deadline without a resolved state-aid clearance for the 9 GW 2026 programme's gas-plant subsidies. A negative spark spread this deep on cheap gas strengthens the case for subsidised dispatchable capacity, the same case still awaiting a state-aid ruling.
French power exporters
French power exporters
French day-ahead cleared EUR 41.13/MWh on Sunday 26 July, EUR 43.09 below Germany, on wind more than doubling and a demand trough, not on any nuclear recovery. The desk expects the discount to hold only as long as French wind and weekend demand repeat, not as a durable nuclear-cost advantage.
European gas storage operator
European gas storage operator
A storage operator stopped bidding for prompt TTF cargoes on 21 July, reading the strike-halt unwind as the start of a fuel-side correction rather than a floor. It expects the gap between prompt and forward gas to keep narrowing as the war premium continues leaving the curve.
German gas-fired power fleet
German gas-fired power fleet
German gas-fired plants cut output from 4.37 GW to 2.85 GW between 24 and 27 July, even as TTF fell 8 per cent, because below roughly minus EUR 40/MWh the fuel price stopped deciding dispatch. The fleet expects no relief until wind eases or StromVKG's first 4.5 GW auction adds capacity.
French industrial power consumers
French industrial power consumers
France's day-ahead discount to Germany has nearly closed as TTF and EUA rise together on both sides of the border, eroding the arbitrage French industry relied on through the summer. A standing negative spark removes the German demand buffer that kept that spread wide.