23JUL

Rubio heads to Ambani's Indian refinery

3 min read

19:31UTC

Marco Rubio was due to stay overnight at Reliance's Jamnagar refinery complex and meet Mukesh Ambani on his India trip, four days after Trump waived Graham Act tariffs.

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Key takeaway

Rubio planned to take Washington's Russian-oil pressure straight to India's biggest private refiner.

Marco Rubio, the US secretary of state, arrived in Mumbai on 20 October, four days after Trump waived the Graham Act, a US law requiring tariffs on big buyers of Russian oil. He met India's foreign minister, S. Jaishankar, and after a change of schedule was due on 21 October to stay overnight at Reliance Industries' Jamnagar Refinery and meet Reliance chairman Mukesh Ambani⁠¹. He was also scheduled to meet Gautam Adani and Tata's N. Chandrasekaran.

"Sanctions aren't just on Russia. They are on anyone who does business with Russia," Rubio said. He said he hoped the waiver and a trade deal "a matter of weeks, not months" away would resolve the issue with New Delhi.

India has already cut back. Its Russian crude imports fell about 29% from July to September, from about 2.57m to 1.82m barrels a day, according to the ship-tracking firm Kpler. India remained the largest seaborne buyer of Russian crude in September, ahead of China at about 1.49m barrels a day. Rubio said Washington was exploring whether Reliance could process more Venezuelan heavy crude; The Wire noted that US sanctions on Venezuela's government could stand in the way.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

Russia pays for much of its war by selling oil. India, a huge and fast-growing economy, has become one of its biggest customers since 2022, because Russian oil sells at a discount. The US wants India to buy less. Marco Rubio, the US Secretary of State, visited India and was due to meet its richest businessmen, including Mukesh Ambani. Ambani's company, Reliance, runs the world's largest oil refinery at Jamnagar in Gujarat. India's purchases of Russian oil have already dropped by nearly a third since July.

Deep Analysis

Root Causes

India's refiners include state companies and private exporters such as Reliance, which sells much of Jamnagar's fuel output abroad, including to Europe and the US, so its exposure to sanctions differs from that of a state refiner selling at home.

Russia already owns part of India's refining capacity. Rosneft holds a stake of about 49% in Nayara Energy, which the EU sanctioned in July 2025, so some Russian crude flows through a refinery Moscow partly controls.

The Graham Act ties US tariffs to the largest buyers' purchases, which puts India's ranking as top seaborne buyer at the centre of the trade talks.

What could happen next?

Consequence
A US-India trade deal tied to lower Russian purchases would cut one of Moscow's two biggest seaborne outlets.
Short term · Assessed
Opportunity
Venezuelan heavy crude could gain a large Asian buyer if US sanctions policy allows it.
Medium term · Suggested
Risk
More Russian barrels could move to Chinese buyers, leaving Moscow's total sales less changed than India's figures suggest.
Medium term · Suggested

Source Landscape

This story draws on centre-left-leaning sources from India

India

Primary parallel: In May 2019 the US ended the waivers that let India buy Iranian oil, and Indian refiners stopped Iranian imports within weeks. Private and state refiners alike chose access to US finance over discounted crude.

Counter-parallel: In 2012-13, under earlier US and EU sanctions on Iran, India kept buying Iranian crude and paid partly in rupees through UCO Bank. Washington granted India waivers because New Delhi had cut volumes enough, so pressure produced a negotiated cut rather than a halt.

Immediate: On Lowdown's arithmetic from Kpler data, India's Russian crude intake fell by about 0.75m barrels a day between July and September. That is roughly the volume of a large refinery's daily run moving to other suppliers.

Structural: Rubio said Washington was exploring whether Reliance could process more Venezuelan heavy crude, which suits Jamnagar's complex units. The Wire noted that US sanctions on Venezuela's government could stand in the way. A US-approved heavy grade would ease the cost of cutting Russian barrels, and a trade deal Rubio put "weeks, not months" away would reward the switch.

Consensus view: One reading is that India's Russian crude buying follows price discounts more than politics. Washington then wins cuts by narrowing the discount through sanctions risk, not by persuading New Delhi on the war.

Counter-view: India's Ministry of External Affairs spokesman, Randhir Jaiswal, said in August 2025 that Russian oil imports are "meant to ensure predictable and affordable energy costs to the Indian consumer" and are "a necessity compelled by global market situation". New Delhi presents its buying as national interest, never as a concession.

Key tension: Whether Rubio's pressure works through India's government or around it, through private refiners such as Reliance whose export businesses depend on Western markets.

First Reported In

Update #30 · Kremlin floats 10 November talks as diesel deal work begins

The Wire· 22 Oct 2026

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Causes and effects

Caused by

Trump waives Graham Act's Russia tariffs

Rubio pressed India's refiners four days after Trump waived the Graham Act tariffs.

Occurred 16 Oct 2026

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Trump signs Graham Russia sanctions law

The Graham Act's threat of tariffs on Russian oil buyers framed Rubio's visit to India.

Occurred 18 Sept 2026

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This Event

Rubio heads to Ambani's Indian refinery

India is the biggest seaborne buyer of Russian crude, so Washington's sanctions pressure runs through a handful of Indian refiners.

Different Perspectives

Cross-border power traders

The France-Germany day-ahead spread flipped from a EUR 17.20 German premium on 1 August to a EUR 4.15 French premium on 3 August, the same day French curtailment peaked. They cannot yet attribute the flip to curtailment alone, since a like-for-like overnight comparison shows French nuclear output rising while wind fell and demand returned on the weekday step.

EDF

River-cooling limits took 7.6 GW, 12 per cent of its fleet, offline on 3 August, the highest curtailment since the heatwave began, with an easing forecast to 4.3 GW on 4 August and 3 GW after. It manages the cut as a recurring seasonal constraint, expecting it to lift with river temperature, not repair.

Gasunie

TTF, the Dutch hub it operates, drifted to roughly EUR 55 to 58 per MWh across the window, staying inside its recent range through both the German spark reversal and the French curtailment. It reads a flat hub price as evidence that neither event this window carried enough weight to move the fuel leg on its own.

German gas-fired generators

Record German solar of 18,761 MW on 2 August pushed the clean spark spread to minus 18.48 EUR/MWh, a loss-making day, before it returned to plus 16.20 on 3 August. They now price dispatch against post-solar residual load rather than wind alone, since the sign flipped inside 48 hours on unchanged fuel and carbon costs.

European Commission (DG Energy)

Its implementing-measures register logged transposition notices from only Portugal and Slovakia against Wednesday's Article 94 deadline for Directive (EU) 2024/1788, with 25 states silent. It expects the register to fill only gradually, since filing routinely lags legislating and any infringement track against non-notifying states runs on a slower clock than the deadline itself.

Spain's LNG terminal operators

Spain's 9,145 GWh terminal inventory is the largest single stock in the EU LNG network, an option value that can reroute cargoes wherever the winter strip pays best rather than a cavern gas obligation tied to a fixed date. That flexibility matters more as Germany's cavern shortfall pushes more of the winter security question onto import infrastructure.

Written with AI from Lowdown's published reporting. Not individually reviewed by an editor. Editorial standards.