29MAY

EU LNG terminals drew 163kt in three days

2 min read

09:05UTC

Terminal stocks funded the marginal molecule into pipeline storage as Atlantic cargoes kept missing the basin.

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Key takeaway

Terminal stocks are now the marginal supplier; the buffer is finite and shrinking.

Gas Infrastructure Europe's ALSI (Aggregated LNG Storage Inventory, the terminal-stocks companion to AGSI+) showed aggregate EU terminal inventory falling from 5,929 thousand tonnes on 10 April to 5,766 thousand tonnes on 13 April, a draw of 163 kt over three days ¹. Daily send-out averaged 4,348 GWh, with no evident new cargo arrivals landing in the window.

Around a dozen Atlantic LNG cargoes had already diverted to Asia since early March , compressing the JKM-TTF spread to near parity and removing the arbitrage that would ordinarily pull reload cargoes back into European terminals. QatarEnergy's Ras Laffan force majeure takes out the other direction of flexible supply. With Atlantic inflow thin and Qatari inflow blocked, terminal buffer is the only variable left, and it is being drawn at roughly 50 kt per day to keep pipeline send-out steady.

That dynamic has a short runway. ALSI carries finite stock, and drawing it during peak reload season means Europe enters May with a thinner LNG cushion against any late-April supply shock. With the Russian LNG cutoff arriving on 25 April and no replacement supply publicly named, the buffer question becomes a May question rather than a June one.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

LNG, liquefied natural gas, arrives at European ports as a super-cooled liquid in specialised tankers. It is stored at coastal terminals before being sent inland through pipelines as regular gas. Think of the terminals as the first link in the chain between ships arriving from Qatar, the US, or Nigeria, and the heating systems of European homes. Between 10 and 13 April, EU terminals collectively drew down their stocks by 163,000 tonnes in three days, and no new tankers appear to have docked to refill them. That is because LNG ships have been diverting from Europe to Asia, where buyers are paying slightly more. European terminals were funding their pipeline obligations by drawing on reserves, not new deliveries.

What could happen next?

Risk
The Russian LNG ban on 25 April removes a portion of the terminal replenishment flow while injection season demand for send-out rises, accelerating the terminal drawdown rate beyond the current 54 kt/day.

Source Landscape

This story draws on neutral-leaning sources

At 4,348 GWh/day send-out and 5,766 kt inventory, EU terminals hold approximately 8.4 days of buffer. A 163 kt three-day drawdown represents a daily depletion rate of 54 kt without replacement. At that rate, terminals would fall below operational minimums (roughly 3,000 kt) in approximately 52 days if no new cargoes arrived, which is implausible but illustrates the directional pressure.

The structural constraint is the JKM-TTF spread: at USD 0.10/MMBtu parity, no flexible cargo operator has a price incentive to choose Europe over Asia. A EUR 42/MWh TTF translates to roughly USD 15.4/MMBtu, while Japanese LNG spot was trading at approximately USD 15.5/MMBtu. The 10-cent spread is below the routing cost differential between Atlantic-to-Europe and Cape-of-Good-Hope-to-Japan, making Europe effectively uncompetitive for swing cargoes until TTF rises or Asian demand softens.

Consensus view: S&P Global Commodity Insights LNG analysts assess that a three-day terminal drawdown with no evident new cargo arrivals is the signature of a supply hiatus, not a demand surge. When the JKM-TTF spread narrowed to USD 0.10/MMBtu , US and Nigerian operators holding flexible cargoes diverted to Asia, where committed long-term offtakers were paying premiums to recover from Hormuz supply loss.

Counter-view: GIIGNL (the International Group of Liquefied Natural Gas Importers) notes that European terminal operators routinely hold 5-7 days of send-out buffer above operational minimums, and 5,766 kt represents roughly 8 days of current send-out. The terminal estate is not in distress; it is operating at the bottom of its working range.

Key tension: Whether the 8-day buffer is adequate once the Russian LNG ban removes approximately 17 bcm per year from 25 April, cutting the replenishment flow precisely when injection season demand for send-out is rising.

Sources:Gas Infrastructure Europe

Mentions:GIE ALSI →European Union →Liquefied Natural Gas →QatarEnergy →Qatar →TTF →JKM →Nigeria →Russia →Ras Laffan Industrial City →GIE AGSI+ →Gas Infrastructure Europe →Russian LNG short-term contract ban →

First Reported In

Update #2 · TTF EUR 42 as Russian LNG ban enters range

Gas Infrastructure Europe· 15 Apr 2026

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Causes and effects

This Event

EU LNG terminals drew 163kt in three days

Europe is eating its LNG savings to feed a pipeline system that has not yet flipped to injection.

Led to

Hormuz: 19 transits, no LNG; ALSI bounce was Atlantic

The ALSI terminal inventory on 25 April (5,071 kt) is 696 kt below the 13 April baseline tracked in ID:2423, confirming the Hormuz-driven drawdown continues.

Occurred 25 Apr 2026

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Different Perspectives

Amsterdam-Rotterdam gas trading desks

TTF failing to sustain EUR 47+ with 51 mcm/day of Norwegian capacity offline confirms EUR 50 as a diplomatic ceiling; the curve is a Troll-restart long, and EBN's EUR 233 million mandate budget cap is a known limit on price-insensitive prompt buying.

ARERA

Italy's energy regulator is running mandatory storage injection that carries the EU aggregate trajectory alongside CRE and EBN, while Italian industrial consumers at Panigaglia face a simultaneously low-utilisation terminal and a EUR 2/MWh delivered-cost basis above TTF. The mandate funds security of supply at the expense of Italian competitiveness.

Shell

As a long-term Russian LNG contract holder, Shell faces a replacement procurement problem concentrated in Q3-Q4 2026 ahead of the 1 January 2027 double cliff; with terminal booking lead times running weeks, the real deadline is late November 2026 and no replacement supply has been publicly named.

CRE

France's 100% mandatory booking order funds injection regardless of the inverted strip, providing the EU aggregate cover that Germany's abolished levy cannot; the CRE order is renewed annually, making it a political risk rather than a structural guarantee. That dependency exposes the EU injection trajectory to French electoral cycles.

Bundesnetzagentur

Germany's regulator holds the early-warning gas stage active with no statutory instrument to compel commercial injection, and Berlin confirmed on 20 May it will introduce no summer incentive scheme; Germany is the EU's only major unincentivised storage market after the levy lapsed on 1 January 2026. The mandate gap is carried by three other member states.

European Commission

The Commission relaxed the mandatory fill target from 90% to 80% and published an ETS benchmark revision saving industry EUR 4 billion, choosing industrial competitiveness over both climate and storage ambition at the moment physical margins are tightest. Both decisions reduce policy pressure at the exact week the trajectory margin narrowed to 45 GWh/day.