Western marine war-risk cover returned to The Gulf shipping corridor at 3 to 4% of hull value by 22 June, against 0.25% before the conflict, twelve to sixteen times the pre-war rate1. War-risk insurance is the premium underwriters charge to cover a vessel crossing a conflict zone; at these levels the loading alone adds roughly $1 to $1.50 a barrel to the all-in delivered cost of a VLCC cargo. Mine clearance through Hormuz has not officially begun.
The transit counts and the mine-clearance timeline are the Iran desk's beat. A European freight desk carries the insurance loading directly, embedding a premium of a dollar or more a barrel into the delivered cost of every Gulf cargo. The flat Brent screen does not register that floor for eastern buyers, even as the screen treats the crisis as closed.
That embedded cost is part of why the forward freight curve has stayed anchored while the flat price fell: the tanker market is pricing the insurance and the physical risk, not the diplomacy. An insurance market still charging a war-risk multiple of this size is not one that believes the reopening is complete.
