How does the new Senedd voting system work in 2026?: Wales now uses closed-list D'Hondt PR. Voters pick a party, not a candidate. Each of 16 constituencies returns 6 Members; seats are allocated by the D'Hondt method. You need roughly 12% of the constituency vote to win one seat.Source: Wales Governance Centre
Could the Wales Greens hold the balance of power in the Senedd?: YouGov's MRP projects the Wales Greens at 10 seats — their first ever Senedd representation. A Plaid-Green Coalition would reach 53 seats, four above the majority threshold, giving them genuine kingmaker status.Source: YouGov MRP
How many seats do you need for a majority in the Senedd?: The 2026 Senedd has 96 seats. A majority requires 49 seats. YouGov's final MRP projects Plaid-Labour at ~55 seats and Plaid-Conservative at ~47 seats (below threshold).
What is the Senedd election projection for 7 May 2026?: YouGov's final Senedd MRP projects Plaid Cymru 43 seats, Reform UK 34, Welsh Labour 12, Welsh Conservatives 4, Wales Greens 2. Welsh Labour's projected 12% vote share is the lowest since 1906.Source: YouGov MRP
Who are the Members of the Senedd and how are they elected?: Members of the Senedd (MSs) are elected by party list under closed-list D'Hondt PR. Voters choose a party and the seats go to candidates in the party's pre-set list order. Each of 16 constituencies returns 6 MSs.
How many seats does the Senedd have?: The Senedd has 96 seats from the 2026 election, up from 60 previously. The expansion to 96 seats came alongside a switch from mixed-member proportional to closed-list D'Hondt PR across 16 six-member constituencies.
When was the Senedd established?: The Senedd (then the National Assembly for Wales) was established under the Government of Wales Act 1998 and first sat in 1999. It was renamed Senedd Cymru / Welsh Parliament in 2020.
What electoral system does the Senedd use?: Since the 2026 election the Senedd uses D'Hondt Closed-list proportional representation. Voters choose a party, not an individual candidate. Each of the 16 constituencies returns 6 MSs; approximately 12% of the constituency vote is needed to win a single seat.Source: Lowdown uk-elections-2026
Who controls the Senedd after the 2026 Welsh election?: Plaid Cymru won 43 of 96 seats and formed a minority government, with the 2 Wales Green MSs providing confidence and supply — a combined 45 seats, short of the 49-seat majority. First Minister Rhun ap Iorwerth governs through case-by-case support.Source: Lowdown uk-elections-2026

Background

The Senedd (Welsh Parliament, formally Senedd Cymru) is the devolved legislature of Wales, established under the Government of Wales Act 1998 and first sitting in 1999. It was known as the National Assembly for Wales until 2020. The Senedd passes primary legislation on devolved matters — health, education, local government, housing, transport, parts of the environment — and scrutinises the Welsh Government.

For the 2026 election on 7 May, the Senedd operated for the first time under a fundamentally new electoral system: 96 seats across 16 constituencies, each returning 6 Members of the Senedd (MSs) via D'Hondt Closed-list proportional representation. This replaced the previous 60-seat mixed-member system that had applied since 1999. The Wales Governance Centre estimates approximately 12% of a constituency vote is needed to win a single seat, and a 49-seat majority is required to govern alone. The new system was designed to produce a more proportional legislature and increase the diversity of the chamber.

The 7 May 2026 result produced the first transfer of power in the Senedd's 27-year history: Plaid Cymru won 43 seats, Reform UK 34, Welsh Labour 9, Welsh Conservatives 4, Wales Greens 2. Plaid formed a minority government with the Greens' confidence and supply (45 seats combined). The new chamber's PR system means every future government must broker support; the era of majority or near-majority Welsh Labour government is over. On election night, Wales, England, and Scotland processed results under three different electoral systems simultaneously — closed-list PR, FPTP, and the Additional Member System respectively — making 7 May the most complex multi-system UK election count in modern history.