Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
US regional central bank; found AI employment decline concentrated on workers under 25.
In research published from March 2026, the Dallas Fed found AI-exposed employment fell roughly 1% while the wider economy grew, with the decline concentrated on under-25 workers via collapsed job-finding rates rather than outright layoffs.
Last refreshed: 22 September 2026 · Appears in 1 active topic
Is AI hitting under-25s hardest through collapsed job-finding rates?
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The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas is the regional central bank for the Eleventh Federal Reserve District, covering Texas, northern Louisiana and southern New Mexico. Alongside its role in monetary policy operations, it conducts original economic research with particular strength in energy economics, Labour markets and regional economic conditions.
Through 2026 the bank produced some of the most granular empirical work available on how AI exposure affects employment by age group, distinguishing a genuine hiring slowdown for young workers from the more contested claim of mass AI-driven layoffs that dominates corporate reporting on the subject.
That distinction matters because it identifies a mechanism, structural non-entry into first jobs, rather than a single redundancy event, meaning the effect shows up in hiring statistics and youth unemployment data long before it appears in any employer's layoff announcement.
AI job losses concentrate on under-25s
The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas found employment in the top 10% of AI-exposed industries fell about 1% even as the broader economy added jobs. The decline traced almost entirely to collapsed job-finding rates for workers under 25, not to higher rates of separation from existing jobs.
A second Dallas Fed paper split 'codified knowledge', the textbook material AI reproduces easily, from 'tacit knowledge', the hands-on experience it struggles to replicate. It found returns to experience rising in AI-exposed occupations: entry-level workers face compressed opportunities while experienced staff in the same sectors see wage gains, evidence of non-entry rather than mass redundancy.