Background

The Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA) is a transatlantic think tank headquartered in Washington DC with offices in Europe, founded in 2007. Its focus spans Central and Eastern European security, NATO policy, energy geopolitics, emerging technology, and the Russia-Ukraine war. CEPA has grown significantly since the 2022 invasion, producing regular operational analyses that draw on RUSI, ISW, and primary military reporting.

CEPA's analytical output spans multiple Lowdown topic areas. On the Russia-Ukraine war, CEPA published David Axe's assessment, citing RUSI research, that Ukraine's 130 oil infrastructure strikes in 2025 delivered just 0.46% of Russian annual oil revenue in damage ($863m of $189bn). In a 16 July 2026 analysis, CEPA senior fellow Alexander Kolyandr found that the Moscow Exchange index had fallen for 17 consecutive weeks, its longest losing run since 1997, erasing gains back to February 2022 invasion-day levels, even as RUB 910 billion flowed into retail brokerage accounts in the first quarter. A separate CEPA piece noted that Fire Point, Ukraine's Flamingo cruise missile manufacturer, was under a NABU corruption investigation.

On European tech and regulatory topics, CEPA's analysts are cited across the EU-US regulatory friction space, including on DMA enforcement and AI Act implementation. The think tank occupies Washington's transatlantic policy space with credibility among both Republican and Democratic Foreign Policy establishments; its research is routinely cited by Congressional staff and State Department analysts working on Eastern Europe.

Common Questions

Reference

What topics does CEPA cover beyond Russia and Ukraine?

Beyond Russia-Ukraine analysis, CEPA covers European tech sovereignty, EU-US regulatory friction including DMA enforcement and AI Act implementation, drone policy, and sanctions architecture. Its analysts are cited across multiple Lowdown topic areas including European Tech Sovereignty.Source: Entity background / recent_events

Is CEPA biased towards Ukraine in its analysis?

CEPA occupies a pro-transatlantic analytical position but publishes findings that challenge pro-Ukraine narratives, including its assessment that Ukraine's oil strike campaign has delivered only 0.46% of Russian annual oil revenue in damage. Russia frames CEPA as a propaganda organ of The Atlantic alliance but selectively cites its more sceptical findings.Source: Entity background

What is the Center for European Policy Analysis and who funds it?

CEPA is a transatlantic think tank founded in 2007 and headquartered in Washington DC with European offices. It focuses on Central and Eastern European security, NATO policy, energy, and emerging technology. Its analytical output is cited by Congressional staff and State Department analysts; it is aligned with transatlantic security but maintains research standards distinguishable from pure advocacy.Source: Entity background

Does CEPA support Ukraine financially or is it independent?

CEPA is a 501(c)(3) non-profit research organisation. It receives funding from foundations, governments, and corporate donors including defence contractors. Its pro-European and transatlantic position is institutional rather than concealed, but its independence from direct Ukrainian government funding means its more critical analyses — such as the 0.46% oil revenue finding — carry more weight than pure advocacy would.Source: CEPA public filings

Why is the Moscow Exchange falling in 2026?

CEPA senior fellow Alexander Kolyandr found in a 16 July 2026 analysis that the index had fallen for 17 consecutive weeks, its longest losing run since 1997, erasing gains back to February 2022 invasion-day levels despite RUB 910 billion of first-quarter retail brokerage inflows.Source: Lowdown

What did CEPA find about the impact of Ukraine's oil strikes on Russia?

CEPA published David Axe's analysis that Ukraine's 130 oil infrastructure strikes in 2025 caused approximately $863m in damage, equivalent to just 0.46% of Russian annual oil revenue of $189bn. The analysis, drawing on RUSI research, calculated Ukraine would need roughly two centuries of strikes at the current pace to equal one year of Russian oil revenue.Source: CEPA / David Axe (2026)

What did CEPA report about Ukraine's Flamingo missile manufacturer?

CEPA published a piece noting that Fire Point, the Ukrainian manufacturer of the FP-5 Flamingo cruise missile, was under a NABU (National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine) corruption investigation. The report was significant because it challenged Ukraine's own domestic accountability at a moment when the Flamingo was demonstrating operational reach against Russian targets.Source: CEPA / NABU

What is CEPA and what do they say about Ukraine?

The Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA) is a Washington-based think tank focused on transatlantic security and European affairs. In April 2026 it published David Axe's assessment that Ukraine's 130 oil infrastructure strikes in 2025 inflicted only 0.46% of Russia's annual oil revenue in damage — a figure widely cited in debate about the effectiveness of Ukraine's oil-war strategy.Source: https://lowdown.today/entities/center-for-european-policy-analysis

How the World Sees Them

Russia

Moscow consistently frames CEPA as a propaganda organ of the Atlantic alliance. The think tank's critical findings on Ukraine — such as the 0.46% oil revenue figure — are selectively amplified by Russian state media when they serve the narrative of a failing Ukrainian strategy.

Ukraine

CEPA's analyses are both cited and scrutinised in Kyiv. The oil-strike revenue finding challenged the narrative of a successful economic campaign, while the Flamingo/NABU investigation piece touched a sensitive domestic accountability question.

United States

CEPA occupies Washington's transatlantic policy space with credibility among both Republican and Democratic foreign policy establishments. Its research is routinely cited by Congressional staff and State Department analysts working on Eastern Europe.

European Union

CEPA's European offices and focus on EU-US regulatory coordination make it a reference point in Brussels policy discussions on DMA enforcement, AI Act implementation, and transatlantic sanctions coordination.