ASML
Dutch EUV monopolist at the centre of a US-EU confrontation over China chip-export controls.
ASML raised its 2026 sales guidance to €43-45bn on 15 July after Q2 systems sold rose to 86, yet named no new European fab to receive its expanded 2027 EUV capacity.
Last refreshed: 4 August 2026 · Appears in 1 active topic
Can ASML survive Washington setting the terms for who it may sell to?
Timeline for ASML
Moved High-NA EUV lithography into high-volume production at Intel Foundry
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European Tech SovereigntyRaised full-year guidance to €43-45bn and dropped export-control hedge
European Tech Sovereignty: ASML booms, Europe's fab gap holdsMentioned in: MPs name the UK's sovereignty gap
European Tech SovereigntyBackground
ASML, based in Eindhoven, is the sole manufacturer of EUV lithography machines, the equipment without which no advanced logic chip below 7nm can be produced. Every cutting-edge semiconductor factory in the world depends on ASML, a monopoly built on 30 years of cumulative R&D, a supply chain spanning 5,000 specialist vendors, and patents rivals have not replicated.
ASML's Chinese sales have propped up its own R&D spend for years, a prop now thinning under a US export regime the company must comply with regardless of the cost to its business: China's share of ASML's system sales fell from 36% in Q4 2025 to 19% in Q1 2026 as Washington tightened DUV export restrictions.
In June 2026 Washington's proposed MATCH Act moved from legislative text to live confrontation, asserting US jurisdiction over what ASML may sell or service to Chinese customers, a bill the Dutch Cabinet left Washington describing as 'irritated' by. The EU Chips Act's 20%-by-2030 target depends implicitly on ASML's continued dominance.
Its order book still bypasses Europe
ASML's Q2 2026 results, reported 15 July, beat expectations: net sales of €9.3bn, gross margin of 54.0%, and 86 lithography systems sold, up from 67 in Q1, prompting a second guidance raise in two quarters to €43-45bn. ASML is adding 30% to its 2026 low-numerical-aperture EUV capacity, from around 65 units to around 85, for delivery in 2027, but those units are earmarked for fabs in Taiwan, South Korea and Arizona; no new European leading-edge fab has been named to receive them. That gap sits alongside the ESMC Dresden fab, which depends on ASML's lithography equipment for its own 2027 schedule, underlining that Europe's chip ambitions still run entirely through a single Dutch supplier whose growth is being captured elsewhere.
Is ASML increasing its EUV lithography production capacity?
Why did ASML stop mentioning export controls in its Q2 2026 results?
Did ASML's China revenue keep falling in Q2 2026?
What is the MATCH Act and how does it affect ASML?
Can ASML sell chip machines to China?
How much of ASML's revenue comes from China and is it falling?
Why did ASML's Q2 2026 guidance miss analyst expectations?
What is the Chips Act II and how does it affect ASML?
Who is ASML's CEO?
What is ASML's role in EU semiconductor sovereignty?
What does ASML actually make and why is it irreplaceable?
Why did the Dutch government call itself irritated over ASML in Washington?
Why did ASML's China revenue fall so sharply in Q1 2026?
Written with AI from Lowdown's published reporting. Not individually reviewed by an editor. Updated 4 August 2026. Editorial standards.