Charles Stewart III
MIT political scientist who founded MIT's Election Lab and co-documented the 'blue shift'.
Raymond Smith's 293-vote lead over Representative Greg Murphy in North Carolina's 3rd, built on provisional ballots counted on 11 November, fits the pattern Stewart and Edward Foley measured: late Democratic gains track provisionals more closely than mail ballots.
Last refreshed: 11 November 2026
Timeline for Charles Stewart III
Raymond Smith overtakes Murphy in NC-3
US Midterms 2026Background
Stewart is the Kenan Sahin Distinguished Professor of Political Science at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and the founding director of the MIT Election Data and Science Lab. He also co-directs the Caltech/MIT Voting Technology Project.
His paper with Edward Foley, Explaining the Blue Shift in Election Canvassing (Journal of Political Institutions and Political Economy, 2020), found that the size of the late Democratic shift tracks provisional ballots more closely than mail ballots.
North Carolina's 3rd District showed the pattern on 11 November. Smith won provisionals 1,114 to 602, and Murphy's 233-vote polling-night lead became a 293-vote deficit. The finding matters most in seats where provisionals decide the result.
Who is Charles Stewart III?
Why do late-counted ballots favour Democrats?
What is the MIT Election Data and Science Lab?
Written with AI from Lowdown's published reporting. Not individually reviewed by an editor. Updated 11 November 2026. Editorial standards.