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US Midterms 2026
11NOV

Peltola leads Sullivan by 0.3 points

3 min read
18:10UTC

Mary Peltola led Senator Dan S. Sullivan 48.2% to 47.9% on first choices with 74.3% of the expected vote counted, so Alaska's seat goes to a ranked-choice tabulation on 18 November.

PoliticsDeveloping
Key takeaway

Alaska's Senate seat waits for the 18 November ranked-choice tabulation, with Peltola narrowly ahead.

Mary Peltola led Senator Dan S. Sullivan 48.2% to 47.9% on first choices with 74.3% of the expected vote counted, NBC reported on Wednesday evening⁠1. Neither is near 50%, so the seat goes to Alaska's ranked-choice count. Voters rank the candidates; the last-placed are eliminated in turn and their ballots pass to each voter's next choice until one candidate holds a majority.

The result can turn on the 3.9% of first choices cast so far for other candidates. One of them is Dan J. Sullivan, a retired Petersburg teacher who shares the senator's name. Alaska's elections officials tried to strike him from the ballot in June before the Alaska Supreme Court reinstated him for the primary.

The Alaska Division of Elections will publish updated counts on 10, 13 and 18 November, spokesperson Steve Kirch told Alaska Public Media⁠2. It runs the official ranked-choice tabulation only on Wednesday 18 November, the deadline for the last absentee ballots, and plans to certify, or declare the official result, by 25 November.

US District Judge Sharon Gleason on Sunday 1 November dismissed the Department of Justice (DOJ) suit that sought to stop the state certifying any winner other than Senator Sullivan, calling the relief "infeasible" because ballots were already cast and mixed⁠3. The department said it would appeal. Senator Sullivan told CNN: "I'm going to accept the election results."⁠4

Deep Analysis

In plain English

Alaska elects its senators by ranked choice. Voters number the candidates in order of preference. If nobody gets more than half of first choices, the last-placed candidate drops out and those ballots move to each voter's next choice, round by round, until someone has a majority. Democrat Mary Peltola is narrowly ahead of Republican Senator Dan S. Sullivan, but neither has half. The ranked rounds run on 18 November, and the state plans to certify the result by 25 November. A second candidate, Dan J. Sullivan, a retired teacher, shares the senator's surname and is among the minor candidates whose ballots will be redistributed.

Deep Analysis
Root Causes

Alaska voters adopted open top-four primaries and ranked-choice general elections by ballot measure in 2020. Any race where no candidate passes 50% of first choices therefore waits for a single tabulation day.

Alaska's late count is built into its calendar. The tabulation date is also the deadline for the last absentee ballots, so the state cannot run the ranked rounds before every eligible ballot has arrived.

What could happen next?
  • Consequence

    Alaska's Senate result will not be known before the 18 November tabulation.

  • Risk

    A Justice Department appeal of Gleason's dismissal could keep certification in court after 25 November.

First Reported In

Update #23 · Democrats take the Senate and the House

NBC News· 5 Nov 2026
Read original →
Different Perspectives
University of Florida Election Lab
University of Florida Election Lab
The lab, run by Michael McDonald, estimates about 124.3 million ballots, a raw midterm record, and turnout of about 49.4% of eligible voters, second to 2018's 50.05%. The raw record reflects population growth more than a record rate, so the late count is working through a near-2018 electorate.
Thune's critics on the right, including Senator Ron Johnson
Thune's critics on the right, including Senator Ron Johnson
Ron Johnson backed the failed 31-15 motion to delay Thune's re-election, after activists such as Mike Cernovich blamed the leader for the defeat. Their complaint is that Republicans could have passed the SAVE Act; in January it meets a Democratic Senate instead.
Senator John Thune
Senator John Thune
Thune was re-elected Senate Republican leader by acclamation on 10 November after a motion to delay failed 31-15. He kept the filibuster that stopped the SAVE Act, the choice his critics on the right blame for the defeat.
House Republicans under Jim Jordan
House Republicans under Jim Jordan
House Republicans elected Jordan minority leader by 106 votes to 73 over Steve Scalise on 10 November, after Speaker Mike Johnson declined to run. They replaced the leadership that lost the majority, while Senate Republicans kept theirs.
Donald Trump
Donald Trump
Trump asked on Truth Social on 9 November whether anybody believed the election "was honest" and blamed the machines, having told The New York Times on polling night he would accept the results. No Republican campaign had sued over a 2026 result by 10 November, so the claim has no case behind it.
Judge David O. Carter
Judge David O. Carter
Carter closed the Justice Department's suit over about 20,000 California mail ballots on 10 November after the department withdrew it, writing that the suit "attempted to disrupt an ongoing election". The closure leaves the department with no court order touching a 2026 California ballot.

Written with AI from Lowdown's published reporting. Not individually reviewed by an editor. Editorial standards.