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US Midterms 2026
27OCT

Justices keep Missouri on its 2022 map

3 min read
13:20UTC

The Supreme Court stayed the 8th Circuit on 25 September and barred lower courts from forcing Missouri onto its 2025 map, so overseas ballots already mailed on the old lines stand.

PoliticsAssessed
Key takeaway

Missouri's 2022 congressional map governs 3 November, and ballots already mailed on it stand.

The Supreme Court on 25 September stayed the 8th Circuit Court of Appeals' 21 September mandate and 22 September order in People Not Politicians v. Onder (application 26A388), with no noted dissent⁠1. A mandate is the formal order sending an appeal ruling back to the trial court. Lower courts "should not order or otherwise require Missouri to use the 2025 map in the 2026 congressional election", the Court wrote.

Missouri's 2022 map therefore governs 3 November. The overseas and military ballots the state began mailing on those lines on 18 September stand without reissue. The 2022 lines are expected to elect six Republicans and two Democrats; the 2025 map, House Bill 1, was drawn for seven and one.

This per curiam opinion, issued in the Court's name rather than a named justice's, is the first of its Missouri orders to give reasons. Its 10 September order had stayed a restraining order from Chief Judge Stephen R. Clark of the federal court in eastern Missouri, who had pointed the state at the 2025 map. The new opinion rejects the 8th Circuit's reading of the Purcell principle, the doctrine that warns federal courts off changing rules close to a vote. "The election is not merely upcoming; it has already started," the Court wrote.

The opinion puts the confusion at the door of Secretary of State Denny Hoskins, whom the state's own Supreme Court held in civil contempt on 10 September, a finding later purged. Citing Maggard v. State, a Missouri Supreme Court decision of May 2026, the Court wrote that Hoskins "was well aware that conducting the August primary election with the 2025 map carried significant risks". He ran the primary on House Bill 1 anyway.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

Every ten years states redraw the districts that elect members of the US House of Representatives. Missouri's Republican legislature drew a new map in 2025, called HB 1, partly to win an extra seat. Opponents gathered signatures to put HB 1 to a public vote, and Missouri's courts paused it. The state's top election official ran the August primary on the new map anyway. A federal appeals court then ordered the new map for November. The US Supreme Court overruled that. Its rule, named after a 2006 case called Purcell, says courts should not change election rules once voting is close or under way. Missouri had already mailed ballots on the old 2022 map, so the old map stays.

Deep Analysis
Root Causes

Missouri passed HB 1 in 2025 as a mid-decade redraw, then a referendum petition and state-court rulings suspended it. Hoskins ran the August primary on HB 1 anyway. The Missouri Supreme Court later held him in civil contempt, later purged, for breaching its suspension order.

That left two maps with competing claims. HB 1 had a primary behind it, while the 2022 map had state-court backing and printed general-election ballots. Federal courts were asked to choose between them after the 19 September overseas ballot deadline had passed.

the Court's two earlier orders, including its 10 September stay of Chief Judge Clark's restraining order, had already signalled the answer. The 25 September opinion was the first to give reasons.

Escalation

Settled for 2026. The order bars lower courts from requiring the 2025 map in this election, which ends the federal route to HB 1 before 3 November. The state-court referendum fight over HB 1 continues for 2028.

What could happen next?
  • Precedent

    A state official who runs a primary on a contested map cannot rely on Purcell to keep that map for the general election.

  • Consequence

    Ann Wagner defends Missouri's 2nd District on its 2022 lines, which Sabato's Crystal Ball describes as a Trump +8 seat rather than the Trump +11 version in HB 1.

First Reported In

Update #19 · Bulk voter citizenship checks are back

Supreme Court of the United States· 1 Oct 2026
Read original →
Different Perspectives
Department of Justice (DOJ)
Department of Justice (DOJ)
DOJ appealed to the 9th Circuit after Judge David O. Carter did not rule by a noon deadline on 22 October that DOJ itself had set, seeking to have California set aside mail ballots from more than 20,000 listed voters. Its case is that ineligible votes cancel lawful ones; the panel dismissed the appeal 2-1 on 26 October.
Lower Costs Now
Lower Costs Now
Lower Costs Now reported $7.37m in Kansas on 24 and 25 October, part of $65.65m in Senate races since its first independent expenditure on 1 October, including $17.21m for Josh Turek in Iowa. Its FEC filings show $50.18m raised by 14 October.
MAGA Inc
MAGA Inc
MAGA Inc, the super PAC aligned with Donald Trump, filed $7.20m against James Talarico on 22 October, taking its Texas spending to $37.65m. Of that, $30.12m is against Talarico and $7.53m is for Ken Paxton, the Republican nominee.
Senate Majority PAC (SMP)
Senate Majority PAC (SMP)
SMP's pre-general report shows it spent $108.70m from 1 to 14 October, including $65.0m to WinSenate and $10.0m to Texas Forever, and ended with $32.72m. Texas Forever has reported $19.40m against Ken Paxton since 1 October.
Senate Leadership Fund (SLF)
Senate Leadership Fund (SLF)
SLF's pre-general report shows $88.42m in cash on 14 October and $18.98m raised in the fortnight, none of it from Elon Musk. It has since reported $12.07m against Sherrod Brown in Ohio, and its $2.7m to Plains PAC preceded that committee's first Kansas buy on 25 October.
National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC)
National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC)
The NRSC's pre-general report shows nothing spent with Ashley Hinson in Iowa, or with its nominees in six other states, from 1 to 14 October, after $5.54m with Hinson in September. It took no new loan and ended the fortnight with $25.20m in cash and $20m of debt.

Written with AI from Lowdown's published reporting. Not individually reviewed by an editor. Editorial standards.