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UK Local Elections 2026
3AUG

Craig wins Manchester in its first second round

2 min read
15:31UTC

Bev Craig led the first count by 26 points and still could not win outright. Second preferences carried her to 66.3% against Reform UK's Sian Astley.

PoliticsAssessed
Key takeaway

Craig needed transfers to win Greater Manchester on the lowest turnout the mayoralty has recorded.

Bev Craig was elected Mayor of Greater Manchester on 30 July 2026, taking 251,449 first preferences, 47.1% of the ballots cast, with the declaration made the following day 1. Craig led the first count by 26 points and still fell short of half the vote. That sent the contest to a second round, the first in the mayoralty's history. Second preferences lifted her to 309,525, or 66.3%, against Sian Astley of Reform UK on 157,178 (33.7%).

Craig, standing for Labour and Co-operative, replaces Andy Burnham, who forfeited the office on entering the Commons at Makerfield and Downing Street a month later . Paul Dennett, the deputy named in statute to step in when a mayor leaves mid-term, ran the combined authority in the gap. Craig holds the mayoralty only to the scheduled 2028 election, so this fills a vacancy rather than opening a term.

Of 169,949 votes cast for the five eliminated candidates, 103,326 carried a usable second preference and 66,623 did not. Craig picked up 58,076 of those, Astley 45,250. Behind the top two, the Green Party came third on 64,968, Restore Britain took 46,289 and beat the Conservative Party into fifth on 41,021, with the Liberal Democrats on 14,702 and an independent on 2,969 2. Rupert Lowe's party has now finished ahead of the Conservatives in a mayoral contest at its first attempt.

Reform's 21.0% first-preference share sits two to three points under its national polling, and the tempting reading is that the Burnham effect has reached the ground. Turnout undercuts that. Only 538,659 of 2,142,779 electors voted, 25.1%, down from 32% in 2024 and the lowest the mayoralty has recorded 3. Three in four electors in Labour's strongest English city-region stayed at home, so the result measures machine strength in Greater Manchester rather than national mood. The 21.0% will be quoted as though it measured both.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

Greater Manchester's mayor oversees transport, policing funding and housing across the region's ten boroughs from a base in Manchester. Since June 2026 these races use the Supplementary Vote: you pick a first-choice candidate and, if you want, a second choice too. If nobody wins outright on first choices, the two leading candidates go through to a second count, and anyone else's second-choice votes for those two are added in. That is what happened here. Bev Craig led on first preferences but without a majority, so Reform UK's Sian Astley stayed in for the second count, and voters who had backed other candidates first helped settle the final result.

Deep Analysis
Root Causes

The Supplementary Vote allows only a first and second preference, not a full ranking, so any voter whose top two choices are both eliminated in round one is exhausted rather than redistributed. That structural limit, distinct from full preferential systems like the Alternative Vote, means Craig's 66.3% final-round share reflects transfers from only the candidates knocked out after round one, not the full field.

A four-way split to the right of Labour, Reform UK, Restore Britain, the Conservatives and a fragmented remainder, meant no single challenger could consolidate the anti-Labour vote even with transfers, the same mechanical pattern now shaping the 13 August Clacton by-election ballot .

What could happen next?
  • Meaning

    Labour holding Greater Manchester despite a fragmented five-party field shows the Supplementary Vote's transfer mechanism can absorb a divided anti-Reform vote without producing an upset.

    Immediate · Assessed
  • Precedent

    The result becomes a reference case ahead of the 2027 unitary authority elections for whether transfers reliably contain Reform's ceiling in mixed fields.

    Medium term · Reported
  • Risk

    Turnout of 25.1%, the lowest on record for the mayoralty, raises questions about the democratic weight of the result if repeated at the next scheduled contest.

    Long term · Reported
First Reported In

Update #14 · Bev Craig wins under a revived voting system

Greater Manchester Combined Authority· 3 Aug 2026
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