Kuwait Petroleum Corporation, the Gulf state's national oil company, told the S&P Global conference on 3 June that full output recovery would take 10-12 weeks even after any reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Kuwait produced just 490kbd in May, under a fifth of its pre-war level, so it sits among the most constrained OPEC members.
The remark matters as a floor under the bounce, not as news of damage. Markets tend to price a ceasefire as an instant supply switch, fading risk premium the moment a diplomatic headline lands. The KPC timeline says that reflex is wrong: blockaded and idled fields do not restart on a press release. Reservoir management, infrastructure checks and shipping logistics impose a multi-week lag between a deal and the first restored cargo.
That 10-12 week wall means any ceasefire-driven short-squeeze fades against the same structural barrier that capped the WTI positioning unwind. A covering rally needs barrels to convert it into durable length, and Kuwait has just said those barrels are a quarter away at best. Until then, a peace headline can move the flat price but cannot refill the physical deficit underneath it.
