12OCT

Tehran's first quiet morning in 37 years

3 min read

10:59UTC

Residents described the city as 'quiet' on Saturday — the first morning in 37 years without a Supreme Leader, and the first after a night of airstrikes on the capital's administrative core.

← Back to US licenses Russian diesel and turns on Kyiv Jump to analysis ↓

ConflictDeveloping

Key takeaway

Tehran's eerie quiet on the first morning without a Supreme Leader in 37 years reflects the intersection of genuine shock, communications blackout, and the uncertainty of a succession process being conducted under active bombardment.

Residents described Tehran as "quiet" on Saturday morning — the first in 37 years without a Supreme Leader. Ali Khamenei assumed the position in June 1989, two months after Ruhollah Khomeini's death. His killing in an Israeli airstrike on his compound, confirmed by Iranian state media, removed the figure who had shaped the Islamic Republic's political, military, and ideological direction for nearly four decades. Every Iranian under 40 has known no other supreme authority.

The quiet carries multiple explanations, none mutually exclusive. Iran's National Security Council had advised residents to leave Tehran. Israeli strikes had expanded into central Tehran the previous night, hitting near police headquarters and state television facilities. Supermarkets in northern Tehran had already run out of bread, eggs, water, and milk. For many residents, departure was the rational response. The "quiet" may be the sound of a city substantially emptied rather than a city at peace.

For those who remained, Saturday morning arrived in an information vacuum. With internet connectivity at 1% of normal, residents could not access news, contact family outside the city, or learn whether the strikes had ended or merely paused. IRGC personnel on motorbikes had been observed displaying weapons to intimidate residents . The celebrations that erupted in Tehran on the night of Khamenei's death — fireworks, chanting, public joy — had either subsided or been suppressed. The gap between Friday night's visible emotion and Saturday morning's reported stillness suggests a population recalibrating between relief, fear, and the practical question of survival under bombardment.

The three-person interim council named under Article 111 had not yet addressed the public. The Assembly of Experts — the 88-member clerical body constitutionally tasked with selecting a new Supreme Leader — cannot convene because its Tehran headquarters was destroyed in the strikes. No constitutional provision exists for the simultaneous loss of The Supreme Leader and the body that selects his successor. Tehran's quiet is the silence of a political system whose centre has been destroyed, with no mechanism yet identified to reconstitute it.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

For 37 years, Ayatollah Khamenei was not merely a head of state — he was the theological and political anchor of the entire Iranian system of government. The principle of Velayat-e Faqih (guardianship of the Islamic jurist) holds that a supreme cleric's authority supersedes that of elected officials. Every major Iranian institution — the Revolutionary Guard, the judiciary, state media, the nuclear programme — ultimately reported to him. His death does not just create a political vacancy; it creates a constitutional and theological crisis about who holds ultimate authority while a successor is chosen. The 'quiet' in Tehran could mean many things: people are too frightened to go out, too stunned to process events, too cut off from information to know what is happening, or simply waiting to see who emerges with authority before acting.

Deep Analysis

Synthesis

The quiet in Tehran is one of the most analytically significant data points in this crisis, precisely because it is ambiguous. It could be read as legitimacy collapse — a population that has already internalised the end of the Islamic Republic and is waiting for confirmation — or as the temporary effect of information suppression. The Iranian government's decision to maintain the blackout suggests it fears the population is not quiescent but is being prevented from acting. The first morning without Khamenei will be studied as a historical inflection point regardless of what follows. Whether it is remembered as the beginning of a democratic transition, a factional civil war, or an authoritarian reconsolidation depends entirely on decisions being made in the next 72 hours.

Root Causes

The quiet is a product of compounding shocks: the assassination of The Supreme Leader, 48 hours of near-total communications blackout, active foreign bombardment, and the unprecedented nature of a constitutional succession crisis during wartime. There is no playbook for this. The Article 111 succession process was designed for a peaceful transition; it has never been stress-tested against simultaneous external military attack and domestic uprising. The Iranian population is, in effect, experiencing multiple regime-altering events simultaneously while cut off from the information needed to understand or respond to any of them.

Escalation

The quiet is fragile and its direction is unresolved. It could represent the calm before organised resistance, the numbness of a population absorbing simultaneous shocks, or the effective suppression of communication preventing any collective action from forming. The key variable is whether the Assembly of Experts can convene and reach consensus under wartime conditions — an outcome whose probability is genuinely uncertain. Each day that passes without a credible successor announcement deepens the political vacuum, as competing factions within the IRGC, the clerical establishment, and the reformist movement position for influence. A quiet Tehran today does not predict a quiet Tehran tomorrow.

What could happen next?

Risk
A prolonged succession vacuum could fracture IRGC command authority, enabling factional actors to take independent military or political actions that neither a successor government nor external parties can predict or contain.
Immediate · Assessed
Meaning
The absence of public reaction in Tehran — positive or negative — reflects the success of the communications blackout in preventing collective action formation, not necessarily genuine popular acquiescence.
Immediate · Assessed
Consequence
The constitutional process under Article 111 will require the Assembly of Experts to convene under active bombardment, a process that could be disrupted by strikes, travel restrictions, or internal factional disagreement.
Short term · Assessed
Precedent
The first successful assassination of a sitting Supreme Leader establishes that such figures are not untouchable, potentially reshaping deterrence calculations for other theocratic and personalised authoritarian regimes.
Long term · Suggested

Source Landscape

This story draws on centre-left-leaning sources from Qatar

Qatar

Iran has been without a Supreme Leader only once before in the Islamic Republic's history: the transition between Khomeini's death in June 1989 and the formal election of Khamenei, a period managed under prepared succession protocols. That transition occurred without external military pressure, with intact communications infrastructure, and with a functioning Assembly of Experts.

The current situation shares none of those conditions.

Why it’s relevant now

The 1989 precedent is instructive precisely because it succeeded under optimal conditions; the absence of those conditions now makes the 'quiet' in Tehran as likely to reflect paralysis and information suppression as genuine calm.

Scholars of authoritarian resilience at The Brookings Institution and the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute have noted that the critical variable in succession crises is whether the security apparatus remains unified in the immediate aftermath. The IRGC's loyalty is to the position of Supreme Leader and the Islamic Republic as a system, not to any individual — but the absence of a named successor creates a window of fractured command authority.

Karim Sadjadpour of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace has argued that Iran's political system is brittle precisely because of its centralisation around a single figure; Khamenei's removal tests that thesis directly.

Sources:Al Jazeera

Mentions:Qom →Assembly of Experts →Karim Sadjadpour →National Security Council (Iran) →United Nations Security Council (UNSC) →Iran →Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) →Tehran →Ali Khamenei →Article 111 →Carnegie Endowment for International Peace →Brookings Institution →Supreme Leader →

First Reported In

Update #6 · Pentagon produced no evidence for Iran war

Al Jazeera· 1 Mar 2026

Read original →

Causes and effects

Caused by

Iran confirms Khamenei killed by Israel

Tehran's quiet morning described as first in 37 years without a Supreme Leader following Khamenei's killing

Occurred 1 Mar 2026

Read story →

This Event

Tehran's first quiet morning in 37 years

The reported quiet in Tehran reflects a population caught between the collapse of the old political order, active military bombardment, and mass civilian departure — a city suspended between the system that has ended and whatever replaces it.

Different Perspectives

Government of Latvia

Latvia abstained on 22 September when the EU renewed its individual sanctions for 36 months at the price of delisting Alisher Usmanov and Mikhail Fridman, and promised national sanctions of its own. Riga's abstention marks how far a frontline member state will go to keep listed names listed.

India's Ministry of External Affairs

After the House passed the Graham bill on 16 September, India's foreign ministry said it would keep buying energy on market terms and protect its trade. Russia supplied 30.3% of India's crude imports in fiscal 2026, so the tariff decision due around 18 October falls directly on New Delhi.

Kaja Kallas, EU foreign policy chief

Kallas answered the US licence on 10 October by saying Europe would not ease pressure, and EU ministers adopted a 22nd package of nearly 1,600 listings two days later. Brussels is tightening as Washington loosens, though TASS reported the package adds no significant new trade restrictions.

Donald Trump and the US Treasury

The Treasury licensed Russian diesel imports until 7 April 2027 on the day of Trump's call with Putin, and Trump then told reporters Ukraine should find a new leader. Washington is trading sanctions relief for fuel supply while pressing Kyiv to halt the refinery strikes behind the shortage.

Kremlin and Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak

After the 9 October call the Kremlin said Russia was ready to supply oil and petroleum products to American and global markets, and Novak brought forward the end of diesel export curbs. Moscow is selling the shortage back as goodwill, with volumes that Decree No. 686 now hides from outside checks.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy, President of Ukraine

Zelenskyy called GL 135 an investment in prolonging the war and offered to stop striking Russian refineries if Russia stops destroying Ukraine's energy system. Answering Trump's call for a new leader, he set a total 60-day ceasefire as the condition for elections, which puts the next move on Moscow.