Oleh Ivashchenko, who heads GUR, Ukraine's military intelligence directorate, told The Times on 10 September that Russian generals have asked Vladimir Putin for 800,000 more troops once the Duma vote is out of the way. He put Russian recruitment at 1,000 to 1,200 men a day against 1,374 daily casualties averaged since 1 July on Ukrainian General Staff figures, with roughly 60% of those casualties killed rather than wounded.
Both numbers come from a belligerent's intelligence service. A normal casualty ratio leaves about three wounded for every man killed, so a 60% killed share sits far outside it and belongs to Kyiv rather than to any independent count. Ivashchenko also put the ceiling on Russian intake at 300,000 to 500,000 recruits at once, which is his reason for saying 800,000 cannot arrive in one wave.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) makes a separate judgement of its own: that Putin will more likely choose rolling call-ups than a mass mobilisation of the 2022 kind. Ivashchenko owns the intake ceiling and ISW owns the call-up forecast, and merging the two would attribute to Washington a number Kyiv supplied. Russian officials were already discussing a fresh mobilisation wave for October back in June, while Mediazona's verified Russian death count was growing by 200 a day in July.
