The IRGC launched waves 16 and 17 of Operation True Promise 4 on Wednesday. Wave 17 comprised "more than 40 missiles" — down from early-conflict salvos that overwhelmed Gulf air defences with hundreds of projectiles per wave. The IRGC has maintained its numbered wave system throughout the conflict, averaging roughly two named waves per day, which indicates organisational continuity even as volume has collapsed.
Three explanations are consistent with the data. Attrition: US and Israeli forces have struck more than 2,000 targets since operations began, and B-2 bombers have specifically targeted hardened underground missile facilities. Physical destruction of launchers and stockpiles would produce exactly this curve. Conservation: Iran's foreign minister acknowledged earlier this week that military units are operating outside central government direction, but the persistence of the numbered wave structure suggests the IRGC's own command chain — distinct from the civilian government — retains coordination. A force aware of its finite inventory may be rationing for maximum political leverage rather than firing to exhaustion. Degraded confidence: if Gulf state and Coalition interception rates are high enough — the UAE alone intercepted 165 ballistic missiles in the opening days — large salvos become expensive theatre rather than effective military action, and smaller, more targeted strikes may reflect adaptation rather than weakness.
The distinction carries operational weight. Iran entered this conflict with its conventional missile force as the primary deterrent against regime-threatening attack — the "conventional shield" Defence Secretary Hegseth referenced at his first Pentagon briefing. If that shield is being physically dismantled, Iran's remaining options narrow to asymmetric warfare through proxies and allied militias, acceptance of terms, or escalation into domains it has so far avoided. The declining salvo rate is a fact. What it means is the central analytical question of the war's next phase.
