9JUN

ISW calls Ukraine's front line frozen

2 min read

11:54UTC

The Institute for the Study of War judged the roughly 1,000km front essentially static on 22 July, with Kostiantynivka still Russia's unmet main effort.

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ConflictAssessed

Key takeaway

ISW reads the 1,000km front as frozen, with Russia paying heavily for ground it does not take.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) judged the roughly 1,000km front essentially static on 22 July, with Kostiantynivka still Russia's unmet main effort and net Russian gains a fraction of last year's ¹. ISW is a Washington research group that publishes daily open-source battlefield assessments, and its maps are a primary independent reference for Western governments. Kostiantynivka is the fortified Donetsk city anchoring Ukraine's defensive line, the last major position before Kramatorsk.

Ukraine has found no trace of the Donetsk advances Valery Gerasimov, Russia's most senior general, claimed on 18 July . The gap between the claim and the geolocated reality is the point: Moscow is asserting captures on a line that independent trackers read as barely shifting.

ISW put the Kostiantynivka loss ratio at three Ukrainian dead to 53 Russian, so the fortress-belt defence keeps imposing a steep price on each Russian push even where the map holds. That arithmetic is why the decisive contests have moved off the battlefield: a static front that favours the defender removes the incentive for either side to gamble on manoeuvre.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

The Institute for the Study of War, a Washington research group that tracks the conflict daily using satellite imagery and open-source reports, assessed on 22 July that Ukraine's roughly 1,000km front line has barely moved. Kostiantynivka, a fortified Donetsk city Russia has been trying to capture for months, remains uncaptured. Russia's own chief of staff claimed new territorial gains days earlier, but independent analysts say they cannot confirm them.

Deep Analysis

Escalation

ISW assesses neither side currently holds the reserves for a decisive breakthrough, meaning the static pattern is likely to persist rather than resolve toward either side in the near term.

What could happen next?

Meaning
A static front with Russian gains far below last year's pace suggests the war's centre of gravity has shifted from territory to attrition and infrastructure strikes.

Source Landscape

This story draws on mixed-leaning sources from United States

United States

LeftRight

Primary parallel: The Western Front's 1915 to 1917 stalemate shows the same structural mechanism: fortified, well-supplied defensive lines neutralise offensive manoeuvre, producing high attrition for marginal territorial change regardless of which side attacks.

Counter-parallel: The German Spring Offensive of March 1918 broke that same stalemate by concentrating scarce reserves against a single weak point, showing static fronts can shift given enough resource concentration; neither side in Ukraine currently has the reserves to attempt that.

Consensus view: The Institute for the Study of War's George Barros assesses the roughly 1,000km front as essentially static, with Russian net territorial gains a fraction of last year's pace even as Moscow claims otherwise.

Counter-view: Russian chief of the general staff Valery Gerasimov presented fresh Donetsk captures on 18 July that ISW says it cannot independently corroborate, a gap ISW has previously attributed to fabricated Russian footage rather than genuine advances, consistent with the pattern that followed Pokrovsk's fall and the push toward Kostiantynivka .

Key tension: Whether the gap between claimed and verified territorial change is deliberate Russian messaging, or simply the fog of a slow, grinding front.

Sources:Russia Matters (Harvard Belfer Center)·Russia Matters (Harvard Belfer Center)

Mentions:Institute for the Study of War →Kostiantynivka →Valery Gerasimov →Pokrovsk →Moscow →Kramatorsk →Russia →Washington →Donetsk →Ukraine →

First Reported In

Update #25 · Ukraine rebuilds command as front freezes

Russia Matters (Harvard Belfer Center)· 23 Jul 2026

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Causes and effects

Caused by

ISW finds no trace of Gerasimov's gains

ISW's 22 July static-front assessment directly contradicts Gerasimov's unverified 18 July Donetsk claims.

Occurred 18 Jul 2026

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This Event

ISW calls Ukraine's front line frozen

Net Russian gains have run at a fraction of last year's pace even as the cost of each metre of ground climbs.

Different Perspectives

IAEA (Rafael Grossi)

IAEA inspectors logged Zaporizhzhia's 22nd loss of off-site power, ten of them in the last three months, after a thunderstorm knocked out the plant's sole surviving backup line. Grossi reads the accelerating frequency, not any single outage, as the safety signal now that the plant's redundancy is exhausted.

United States (Treasury/OFAC)

Washington has let general licence 134C, its Russian crude waiver, lapse for 36 days with no successor, the longest gap of the war. Treasury has not said whether the non-renewal reflects deliberate policy or administrative delay, leaving buyers to price in compliance risk rather than wait for clarity.

Slovakia

Slovakia dropped its hold-out on the EU's 21st sanctions package only after winning a 2028 guarantee phasing out Russian gas, the exact pipeline dependency, roughly 80% of its crude supply, that gave it leverage. Bratislava's climbdown clears the package but leaves the same single-veto mechanism intact for the next round.

Russia (Kremlin and general staff)

General staff chief Gerasimov claimed Donetsk captures on 18 July that ISW says it cannot corroborate, extending a pattern ISW clocked at a 5:1 exaggeration ratio earlier this year. Moscow is conditioning its public for a possible autumn mobilisation after September's Duma elections rather than acknowledging the front has stalled.

Ukraine (Zelenskyy government)

Zelenskyy dismissed his commander-in-chief, defence minister and chief of general staff within eight days, replacing Syrskyi with Drapatyi and Hnatov with Skybiuk as protesters demanded Syrskyi go and Fedorov return. Kyiv frames the sweep as a bet on manoeuvre capacity ahead of a feared Russian autumn surge, not the disarray critics read into three changes in a week.

The United Kingdom

Starmer pledged £300 million in Kyiv on 16 July toward Ukraine's Gripen E squadron, adding to the PURL expansion Trump and Rutte had announced two days earlier. London is paying into a scheme built around a shortfall NATO's own published $4bn-plus pledge does not close against Zelenskyy's roughly $15bn stated need.