Skip to content
Briefings are running a touch slower this week while we rebuild the foundations.See roadmap
Russia-Ukraine War 2026
1JUN

Assembly schedules vote for Mojtaba

3 min read
10:39UTC

The Assembly of Experts moved its emergency session to announce Mojtaba Khamenei to a website and a shrine — after Israel destroyed the building where it last voted.

ConflictDeveloping
Key takeaway

Conducting the succession online from a shrine rather than in a formal institutional venue confirms that Israeli targeting has partially achieved its strategic objective of disrupting the succession process, even if it has not halted it.

Iran International reported that the Assembly of Experts scheduled an emergency online session for 5 March to formally announce Mojtaba Khamenei as Supreme Leader, accelerating from the "next week" timeline reported earlier Wednesday. The session is being held from a location near the Fatima Masumeh shrine in Qom — one of Shia Islam's holiest sites, chosen to lend religious gravity to a succession that lacks it on clerical terms, and because Israel struck the Assembly's Qom headquarters during the succession vote earlier this week , killing or wounding multiple members.

The Assembly had already confirmed Mojtaba as successor , but that vote occurred under contested circumstances. Whether it took place before the Israeli strike on the headquarters, in its aftermath, or in a dispersed emergency session remains unclear and cannot be independently verified during Iran's internet blackout, now in its sixth day . Iranian state media described the selection as "divine will." The formal announcement session is intended to provide the public legitimacy that the initial vote, conducted under fire, could not deliver.

At least eight Assembly members plan to boycott, citing "heavy pressure" from the IRGC. Their objection is substantive: Mojtaba, 56, does not hold marja ("source of emulation") status — the highest rank in Shia clerical hierarchy. Article 109 of the Islamic Republic's constitution requires The Supreme Leader to possess senior jurisprudential scholarship. His father faced a similar objection when elevated from hojatoleslam in 1989; the clerical establishment resolved it by retroactively upgrading Khamenei's rank, a manoeuvre critics called political rather than scholarly. Mojtaba's credentials are thinner still. His power base is the IRGC and Basij, not the seminaries of Qom.

The earlier plan to delay the announcement — linked to postponement of Ali Khamenei's burial and security concerns about any public ceremony presenting a targeting opportunity — has been overridden. The IRGC's calculation appears to be that a state at war without a formally announced head of state is more vulnerable than one with a contested leader. Iran has now restructured its military into 31 autonomous commands and is attempting to formalise its supreme political authority — both under active bombardment, both improvised responses to Israeli strikes designed to decapitate the chain of command. From exile, Reza Pahlavi — the late Shah's son — stated that whoever is announced "will lack legitimacy and will be considered an accomplice to the bloody record" of the Islamic Republic, a framing aimed at the internal Iranian audience the internet blackout is designed to isolate.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

Iran is choosing its most powerful leader — the Supreme Leader sits above the president and controls the military, judiciary, and state media — but instead of a formal ceremony in their parliament building (which was bombed), they are doing it online from near a holy site, rushed to prevent further attacks. The person being chosen (Mojtaba Khamenei) is the current leader's son, which is politically awkward in a system that claims to reject dynastic rule and requires the leader to be a qualified Islamic scholar — a qualification he is widely considered to lack.

Deep Analysis
Synthesis

The dispersed, covert session reveals that Israel's targeting strategy has achieved a secondary effect the body does not articulate: it has transformed Iran's most consequential institutional act into an underground process, reducing its religious and procedural defensibility precisely when maximum legitimacy is needed to govern through a wartime crisis.

Root Causes

Iran's constitution requires the Supreme Leader to be a qualified Islamic jurist (faqih); Mojtaba lacks this standing. The IRGC's willingness to coerce the Assembly reflects a decade-long structural shift in which the Guards' economic interests — estimated at 20–30% of Iran's GDP through affiliated conglomerates — have made them the dominant institutional power, with the theological rationale for the system increasingly subordinate to their security calculus.

Escalation

The acceleration signals the IRGC and regime inner circle want Mojtaba formally installed before either a ceasefire negotiation or continued military pressure removes their ability to control the outcome — suggesting the regime expects the conflict to continue long enough to make the succession a live variable in any talks.

What could happen next?
  • Consequence

    A Supreme Leader installed through a coerced, boycotted, digitally-conducted session will face persistent internal legitimacy challenges that make governance dependent on IRGC enforcement rather than clerical authority.

    Medium term · Assessed
  • Precedent

    Conducting a constitutional process online under targeting pressure establishes that Iranian state institutions can be physically dispersed and degraded by external military action — a capability demonstration that will inform future Israeli and US targeting doctrine.

    Long term · Suggested
  • Risk

    A legitimacy-challenged new Supreme Leader may pursue aggressive military postures in the short term to consolidate authority and demonstrate strength to the IRGC constituency that installed him.

    Short term · Suggested
First Reported In

Update #22 · IRGC drones hit Azerbaijan; CIA link cut

Iran International· 5 Mar 2026
Read original
Causes and effects
This Event
Assembly schedules vote for Mojtaba
The acceleration of Mojtaba's formal announcement — conducted online, relocated for security, and facing an eight-member boycott — reflects the IRGC's judgement that establishing leadership continuity during active bombardment outweighs the legitimacy costs of a contested, hurried process.
Different Perspectives
China
China
Beijing has not publicly commented on the dual Oreshnik launch. China's declared position of urging restraint and dialogue sits awkwardly alongside its continued economic ties with Russia; the weapons escalation tests whether Beijing's neutrality framing can survive a European IRBM normalisation event.
IAEA
IAEA
Director General Grossi condemned the ZNPP reactor-6 turbine building strike and stated "there should be no attack of any kind from or against the plant." The agency confirmed normal radiation levels but has not resolved attribution; Rosatom CEO Likachev warned the region is "one step closer to an incident."
Turkey
Turkey
Ankara hosted Istanbul Round 2 at Ciragan Palace on 2 June and secured a 1,200-for-1,200 prisoner exchange, consolidating Turkey as the war's sole diplomatic venue after Rubio confirmed US mediation has ended. Erdogan's leverage over both parties grows with each round.
European Union
European Union
EU Ambassador Mathernova answered Lavrov's evacuation demand with "We stay in Kyiv. We stay with Ukraine." The Verkhovna Rada approved the EUR 90bn EU loan on 28 May; the EUR 9.1bn first tranche, the EU's first explicit defence-procurement financing, arrives mid-June.
United States
United States
Rubio declared US mediation stagnated on 22 May and confirmed no talks were occurring, then received Lavrov's evacuation demand three days later without ordering embassy drawdown. Washington's leverage now runs through the GL 134C sanctions cliff on 17 June rather than any active diplomatic channel.
Ukraine
Ukraine
Zelenskyy called Russia's 2-3 day ceasefire counter-offer at Istanbul Round 2 "shortsighted" and submitted a full peace memorandum covering EU membership, international guarantees, phased sanctions relief and frozen-asset reparations. Kyiv's position is that a partial ceasefire freeze aids Russian reconstitution; only an all-domain 30-day pause is acceptable.