Skip to content
Briefings are running a touch slower this week while we rebuild the foundations.See roadmap
Russia-Ukraine War 2026
22MAY

Karaj bridge toll rises to thirteen

2 min read
10:57UTC

The US struck an unfinished highway bridge during Iran's most beloved outdoor holiday. Thirteen are dead, 95 wounded, and the toll may still rise.

← Back to Istanbul talks, refineries dark, deficit overrunsJump to analysis ↓
ConflictAssessed
Key takeaway

Thirteen killed at an unfinished bridge on a national holiday gives Tehran its strongest moral argument.

The death toll from the US strike on the B1 highway bridge in Karaj, Alborz province, has risen from 8 to 13, with 95 wounded . The bridge was struck during Sizdah Bedar (Nature Day), the 13th and final day of Nowruz, Iran's most significant outdoor holiday. Thousands of families gather near parks and waterways on Sizdah Bedar. The bridge, still under construction and not yet open to traffic, had no claimed military use. 1

Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said "striking civilian structures including unfinished bridges will not compel Iranians to surrender." Trump posted video of the collapse on Truth Social, calling it "Iran's biggest bridge."

The B1 strike on a national holiday, killing civilians at a gathering with no military nexus, is the clearest case of civilian harm in the campaign to date. The toll may continue to rise.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

Sizdah Bedar is the last day of Iran's spring new year festival. Millions of families go outdoors to parks and riversides. The US struck a bridge in Karaj while people were near it for this holiday. The bridge was still under construction and not yet open to traffic. Thirteen people died. Iran's foreign minister said the strike proved the US was targeting civilians. Trump posted video of the bridge collapsing on Truth Social.

Deep Analysis
Root Causes

CENTCOM's targeting framework designates infrastructure used by military logistics as a legitimate dual-use target under IHL. The B1 bridge was described as a supply route to drone and missile units .

The timing on Sizdah Bedar was either a failure of cultural intelligence, a deliberate signal, or operational indifference. Trump's Truth Social post celebrating the collapse rules out the possibility that the civilian context was weighed as a proportionality factor in target selection.

What could happen next?
  • Consequence

    The Sizdah Bedar timing and Trump's celebratory social media post provide Iran with its strongest propaganda asset of the conflict, directly useful in UN and allied diplomacy.

  • Risk

    The UN Fact-Finding Mission's existing warning about conduct potentially amounting to crimes against humanity will be reinvigorated by this incident. European political pressure on the US will increase.

Sources:Washington Post / Iranian state media·Washington Post / Iranian state media·CNBC / Al Jazeera / NPR
Mentions:Iran →Karaj →Israel →Lebanon →International humanitarian law →Truth Social →Alborz →Prima →ICRC →Baghdad →Nowruz →Abbas Araghchi →B1 highway bridge →Donald Trump →Sizdah Bedar →CENTCOM (US Central Command) →
First Reported In

Update #58 · First US aircraft fall over Iran

Washington Post / Iranian state media· 4 Apr 2026
Read original →
Causes and effects
Caused by
US Strikes Civilian Bridge; Eight Commuters Killed
The US strike on the B1 bridge on 3 April is the event whose toll rose from 8 to 13 dead in this update.
Occurred 3 Apr 2026
Read story →
This Event
Karaj bridge toll rises to thirteen
Striking civilian infrastructure during Sizdah Bedar, with no military nexus, is the clearest case of civilian harm in the campaign.
Different Perspectives
Rafael Grossi, IAEA Director General
Rafael Grossi, IAEA Director General
Grossi's Update 349 of 7 May recorded a drone strike on ZNPP's radiation monitoring laboratory on 3 May. Rosatom's 17 May public attack on the Secretariat's neutrality degrades the diplomatic ground Grossi needs for the sixth repair ceasefire at day 60 on the single backup line.
Indian Government / Embassy Moscow
Indian Government / Embassy Moscow
The Indian Embassy in Moscow confirmed on 18 May that an Indian national was killed and three hospitalised at a refinery construction site in the 17 May barrage. India is among the largest buyers of discounted Russian crude; the fatality forces a diplomatic protest without changing the purchasing posture.
Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkish President
Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkish President
Erdogan met Zelenskyy in Ankara for nearly three hours on 15 May before the Istanbul session, recovering Turkey's 2022 mediator role and reducing Trump's leverage by hosting bilateral talks without Washington in the room. Turkey hosts the NATO Ankara summit on 7-8 July; the Istanbul format gives Erdogan standing at both tables simultaneously.
Viktor Orban / Hungarian Government
Viktor Orban / Hungarian Government
Budapest's new cabinet, formed 12 May, holds the institutional veto point on the EU tranche disbursement ahead of the first-half June window. Hungary has previously leveraged EU loan tranches to extract bilateral concessions; the combination of a fresh cabinet and a tight disbursement timeline makes Budapest the single highest-leverage actor in the EU track this fortnight.
European Council / Commission
European Council / Commission
The Commission is preparing a three-document disbursement package for the 9.1-billion euro first tranche of the EU loan to Ukraine, targeting first-half June, but delivery depends on the Magyar cabinet, which formed on 12 May, not blocking the mechanism. The 20th sanctions package remains in force against Russia.
Donald Trump / US Treasury
Donald Trump / US Treasury
Treasury issued GL 134C with a 48-hour gap after GL 134B expired, confirming the waiver series functions as permanent monthly management rather than a wind-down instrument. Washington was absent from the Istanbul room; Treasury Secretary Bessent framed the Cuba carve-out as protecting 'most vulnerable nations', maintaining the fiction that the 30-day bridge has a humanitarian rationale.