Japan's Nikkei 225 fell 7.05% on Monday, dropping below 52,000 for the first time since January. SoftBank fell 11%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng lost 2.75%. Australia's ASX 200 dropped 3.2%. European and US markets had not yet opened at time of filing.
The gradient of losses maps onto energy dependency. Japan imports virtually all of its crude — approximately 3.4 million barrels per day in 2025, with The Gulf supplying roughly 90% of that volume. At $116 Brent, Japan's annual oil import bill rises by approximately $60 billion compared to pre-war prices, a direct transfer of national income to producing countries. The last time Japan faced a comparable energy shock was the 2011 Fukushima disaster, when the shutdown of nuclear capacity forced emergency LNG purchases at spot prices — but that was a domestic supply disruption with functioning global markets. This is a supply disruption at source, with no alternative routing available while Hormuz remains closed.
Hong Kong's comparatively smaller decline reflects China's different position. Beijing's direct negotiations with Tehran over bilateral Hormuz passage partially insulate Chinese-linked trade from the closure's full effect. Australian losses sit between the two — the country is a net energy exporter and benefits from higher commodity prices, but its equity market is weighted toward financial and real estate sectors that suffer when oil-driven inflation expectations rise.
The timing matters as much as the magnitude. Monday's Asia-Pacific session is the first to price in both the $116 Brent print and the weekend's news — Israel's fuel depot strikes, the US-Israel disagreement over their scope, and Kuwait's force majeure declaration. London, Frankfurt, and New York had not yet opened. The Brent weekly gain that was already the largest in futures history has now accelerated further. What European and American traders will face when their sessions begin is an Asia-Pacific market that has already moved violently — and a Gulf supply picture that has deteriorated since Friday's close, not stabilised.
