Brent Crude closed at $107.77 on 12 May 2026, a 3.4 per cent jump on Trump's verbal rejection of Iran's 10-point MOU reply via Pakistan , then settled at $107.05 on 13 May 1. That is $2.84 above the $104.21 close that priced the Ceasefire as still alive . The verbal rejection had no signed instrument behind it; the price still moved as if one had been signed against the Ceasefire.
Brent is the global oil benchmark; roughly two-thirds of internationally traded crude prices off it, as do European retail diesel and the wholesale gas contracts that feed UK household bills. For UK drivers that translates to a pump price around £1.55 per litre through summer; for UK consumers on index-linked tariffs it adds roughly £180 a year to a typical household gas bill via the wholesale contracts that price off Brent. Traders are pricing both Trump's 11 May "life support" remarks on the Ceasefire and the OFAC Hong Kong designations two days later .
Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley both noted on 13 May that the structural Hormuz premium will persist beyond any Ceasefire because P&I (Protection and Indemnity) insurers cannot reopen war-risk cover for the strait until written rules of engagement exist for the European mission and the US blockade. The insurance freeze, not summit hope, sets the floor for Brent through the rest of May. The market is pricing the absence of signed paper for the rest of May.
