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Iran Conflict 2026
2MAR

Iran's rial rises for a war-first time

4 min read
08:00UTC

Iran's currency firmed 1.7 per cent over three days on Rubio's sequencing signal, its first gain since the fighting began, though a six-month 43 per cent slide still stands.

ConflictDeveloping
Key takeaway

The rial firmed 1.7 per cent on Rubio's testimony, but a 43 per cent six-month slide still stands.

The Iranian rial firmed to 1,716,000 to the dollar by Wednesday 3 June, its first gain since the fighting started. It had hit a record 1,746,000 on Monday 1 June , then eased to 1,730,000 on Tuesday, a recovery of roughly 1.7 per cent on the open market tracked by Alanchand 1. Traders moved on Secretary Rubio's sequencing testimony, not on any signed instrument. The gain rests on a Senate sentence, which means it can reverse on the next round of state-media denials.

That 1.7 per cent does not undo much. The currency had shed 43 per cent over six months before this week , and a three-day bounce leaves it close to its record low. A family in Tehran buying imported insulin still pays near-record rial prices at the counter, so the recovery reads on a trading screen long before it reads on a pharmacy receipt. Brent Crude sat around $95 to $97 across the same days, firmer on the same diplomatic optimism 2.

The relief and the squeeze arrived together. OFAC has just cut the stablecoin rail the Central Bank of Iran leaned on to defend this exchange rate , so the very week confidence lifted the rate, Tehran lost its fastest tool to hold it there. The bounce came from hope; the means to sustain it shrank on the same days.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

Iran's currency, the rial, has been losing value steadily since the conflict began in February 2026. On 1 June it hit a record low: 1,746,000 rials to the dollar. Over two days it recovered slightly to 1,716,000, still far weaker than before the conflict but moving in the right direction for the first time in months. The recovery happened because traders interpreted Rubio's Congressional testimony as a sign that a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz might be possible. No agreement has actually been signed, so the rate rests on spoken words rather than a verified commitment. On the same two days, the US Treasury sanctioned the crypto exchanges that Iran's central bank had been using to buy dollars and support the rial, removing that support mechanism on the very days it was being tested.

Deep Analysis
Root Causes

The rial's structural vulnerability has two separate drivers. The first is the 43% accumulated devaluation from the sanctions shock and the conflict slide, which reflects the gap between Iran's export revenues (constrained by sanctions and the Hormuz blockade) and its import demand (inflexible for food, medicine and industrial inputs).

The second is the absence of a credible central-bank intervention mechanism: the CBI cannot defend the rial through conventional foreign-exchange reserve sales because its reserves are partly frozen and partly inaccessible due to its own SDN listing, so it was using informal crypto channels as a substitute.

Brent crude at $95-97 on the same days reflects the same diplomatic optimism, but from the opposite direction: oil traders priced a Hormuz reopening as plausible, which reduces the scarcity premium. The rial and Brent moving on identical signals with opposite sign (rial up, Brent down from conflict peak) confirms that both markets are trading on Rubio's testimony rather than any structural change.

First Reported In

Update #116 · Washington signs a sanction, not a strike

The National· 3 Jun 2026
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Different Perspectives
Oil markets / Lloyd's of London
Oil markets / Lloyd's of London
Brent fell to near $87.33 on 80 per cent deal-probability pricing, but Lloyd's has not de-listed Hormuz from its war-risk register and shipping diversions continue at 139 vessels. Insurance markets are lagging futures: physical risk remains while financial markets have spent the good news before the paper exists.
India
India
Modi is expected to raise the deaths of three Indian sailors in the 11 June CENTCOM strike on the MT Settebello with Trump at G7 sidelines, the first non-party leader to put the blockade's human cost into a formal bilateral. New Delhi is also a major Iranian oil buyer whose import volumes the sanctions-relief terms will govern.
Israel (Netanyahu)
Israel (Netanyahu)
Netanyahu stated Israel is not party to the deal on 12 June; Defence Minister Katz ruled out the Lebanon withdrawal Iran's draft demands, inserting a third blocker the US-Iran negotiating channel cannot resolve. Israel's position tethers Hormuz reopening to a Lebanon settlement Washington has not brokered.
Pakistan (mediator, Sharif/Naqvi)
Pakistan (mediator, Sharif/Naqvi)
Sharif declared a final agreed text on 12 June before either principal confirmed it, running two Tehran visits in under a week without securing a written IRGC or Khamenei response. Islamabad's incentive to claim a diplomatic win outpaces its standing to deliver either capital's signature.
Iran foreign ministry (Araghchi)
Iran foreign ministry (Araghchi)
Araghchi declared digital signing within days while setting dilute-in-Iran as a non-negotiable red line on the 440.9 kg HEU stockpile, a standing Tehran position he cannot override without authorisation from Khamenei, reachable only by courier. The FM track is sprinting to close before the IRGC reasserts control.
Trump administration / CENTCOM
Trump administration / CENTCOM
Vance called the deal still TBD on 12 June while CENTCOM downed Iranian drones over Hormuz for a second consecutive night and the White House register stayed blank. Washington holds the ship-out position on HEU and has not signed an Iran instrument in over 100 days of conflict.