Skip to content
Briefings are running a touch slower this week while we rebuild the foundations.See roadmap
Iran Conflict 2026
31MAR

Trump: blockade stays till deal signed

3 min read
08:23UTC

Trump set his most specific reopening condition yet on Sunday: the naval blockade stays "until an agreement is reached, certified, and signed." No instrument accompanied the post. The blockade holds regardless of the deal talk.

ConflictDeveloping
Key takeaway

Trump's signed-deal condition keeps the blockade in force and rules out a verbal memorandum.

Donald Trump posted on Truth Social on Sunday 24 May that the US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz will stay "in full force and effect until an agreement is reached, certified, and signed" 1. He added that talks were "proceeding in an orderly and constructive manner" and told his negotiators "not to rush into a deal" because "time is on our side." No executive order or presidential instrument accompanied the post.

Trump had earlier presented the negotiation as nearly settled ; the 24 May post adds an operational condition rather than fresh optimism, and its value lies in what it commits the United States to do rather than say. "Certified, and signed" sets a documentary bar the talks have not met: it rules out the partial or verbal memorandum structure the negotiations had been moving toward.

For the reader arriving cold: the blockade is the US Navy enforcing closure of the strait, the world's busiest oil chokepoint, through which roughly a fifth of seaborne crude moves. Trump's condition means the ships stay regardless of how warm the diplomatic language gets, until a signed text exists. That is why a deal can be reported as close while the strait stays shut.

The condition also bears directly on the sequencing fight. Iran wants its frozen assets freed before it concedes anything operational, while Trump now wants a signed agreement before he lifts the blockade. The two preconditions point in opposite directions, and a verbal understanding satisfies neither. On the day, the only concrete US act was the wording of a social-media post, and the blockade it described needed no signature to stay in force.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

President Trump posted on 24 May that the US naval blockade of the Persian Gulf will stay in place until a deal with Iran is reached and actually signed, agreed by both sides, and formally certified. He also told his negotiators to take their time. This rules out a looser kind of deal where both sides announce they have agreed without writing it down. Iran and the US had been trying to reach exactly that kind of informal arrangement. Trump's post says a signed document is required before the blockade ends, which raises the bar significantly for the ongoing talks.

Deep Analysis
Root Causes

The absence of signed instruments across 87 days of conflict traces to a constitutional and legal-reversibility calculation. The United States War Powers Resolution (1973) requires the president to submit a written report to Congress within 48 hours of committing armed forces.

Trump submitted no such report; the administration has argued the operation falls under existing Authorizations for Use of Military Force. A 'certified and signed' MOU, if it constitutes a ceasefire terminating existing hostilities, would create a legislative record the White House has so far avoided.

Additionally, any signed MOU that includes US sanctions relief requires OFAC to publish a general licence, which becomes a permanent public record challengeable under the Administrative Procedure Act. Trump's preference for Truth Social over signed instruments reflects the legal-reversibility advantage of executive non-commitment: no signed text means no APA challenge, no Senate ratification hearing, and no precedent that constrains future executive action toward Iran.

What could happen next?
  • Consequence

    Any informal MOU structure, including the 60-day framework Ghalibaf and Vance had reportedly developed, requires revision into a formally signed instrument before the blockade can lift under Trump's posted condition.

    Immediate · Assessed
  • Risk

    Iran's Khamenei Council may interpret 'certified and signed' as a demand for a treaty-level instrument, which would require US Senate ratification that no Republican senator has indicated willingness to provide.

    Short term · Suggested
  • Precedent

    A signed MOU, once deposited, becomes the first Iran-specific signed US executive instrument of the entire 87-day conflict, filling the zero-instrument gap documented across every prior post.

    Medium term · Assessed
First Reported In

Update #107 · Two markets, two prices on one Iran deal

Al Jazeera· 25 May 2026
Read original
Different Perspectives
Markets
Markets
Brent crude rose 2.2 per cent to $96.34 on 10 June, reversing a 7 per cent weekly decline built on deal optimism, as the overnight exchange repriced the Strait of Hormuz risk premium in a single session. The move reflects transit-risk repricing rather than supply shock: Iran's exports had already collapsed to below 300,000 barrels per day.
Pakistan
Pakistan
Pakistan's Naqvi channel, the only mediation track carrying both civilian and military buy-in, was stress-tested by live ordnance within 48 hours of the 6-7 June Tehran visit. Whether Washington informed Islamabad of the imminent strike plan while Naqvi was in Tehran remains undisclosed, putting the channel's neutrality under scrutiny.
Kuwait
Kuwait
Kuwait hosted the third Iranian strike on its soil since the 3 June airport drone attack, with Ali Al Salem airbase targeted in the three-country salvo. Its recent $1.98 billion Anduril Anvil counter-drone purchase signals it is rearming rather than reconsidering its hosting posture.
Bahrain
Bahrain
Bahrain absorbed the IRGC barrage via PAC-3 intercepts with its magazine already at 87 per cent depletion and no resupply before 2027. Sounding air-raid sirens over Manama, it faced the intercept burden with the thinnest defensive stack in the Gulf coalition.
Jordan
Jordan
Jordan reported all five incoming missiles intercepted with no injuries and no damage, a clean defensive performance that strengthens Amman's case for staying in the Western coalition without escalating its own posture. It now sits on Iran's target list for the first time despite not being a party to the Abraham Accords confrontation.
Iran / IRGC
Iran / IRGC
Foreign Minister Araghchi posted on X that US forces should 'leave our region if you want to be safe' and framed the exchange as a US defeat, while the IRGC claimed 21 targets hit and an F-35 hangar destroyed. The claims serve a domestic and Arab-audience framing rather than a verified battle-damage assessment.