Germany's clean spark spread held at roughly EUR -8 to -9/MWh on Monday 8 June, with EUA carbon at €76.08/tCO2 stacking onto fuel to push CCGT marginal cost above €132/MWh1. The EUA is the EU Emissions Allowance, the carbon permit under the EU Emissions Trading System priced per tonne of CO2. A German CCGT burning gas at the day-ahead clear loses roughly €8 on every MWh it generates. EUA eased from the €78.22 it reached on 4 June, but nowhere near enough to flip the spread positive.
Carbon cost stacked on top of higher fuel keeps marginal cost above where the day-ahead clears, so the plants stay off-merit even as gas re-rates rather than because it falls. German CCGTs were already off-merit at €129/MWh against a €106 clear on 22 May; the condition has held through TTF's move past €50, the lead development in this briefing.
TTF re-rating deepens rather than relieves the problem, because the higher fuel cost compounds the carbon load. This is the economic failure the cabinet-approved StromVKG, detailed earlier in this briefing, is built to subsidise around: plants that should provide dispatchable backup cannot earn their running cost, so Berlin proposes a capacity premium instead of a price signal the carbon-over-gas maths will not deliver. With the first auction fifteen months out, the negative spread is the operative reality now.
