The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), the Washington research group whose geolocated daily maps Western governments treat as a reference, published its July roll-up on 1 August. Russian forces took 37.85 sq km of Ukrainian territory through confirmed advances during the month, or 121.56 sq km if infiltration missions are counted, at 1.22 km a day1. The same measure gave 455.74 sq km in July 2025. That is a fall of roughly 92% in the confirmed-advance rate, year on year.
Two further figures from the same assessment describe what the month cost. Russia fired 376 missiles, its highest monthly total since large-scale strikes began, and took 42,860 casualties, its worst month of 20262. Kostiantynivka, the fortified Donetsk city ISW named on 22 July as Russia's unmet main effort, is still not seized. The missile total lands on a defence that has stopped functioning against ballistic weapons: Ukraine's interception rate against them reached zero on 6 July. Russia spent a record month of launches against an air defence that had recorded no ballistic intercepts at all.
One caution belongs beside these numbers. An advance rate measures ground taken, not combat power accumulated, and a commander deliberately trading tempo for force preservation ahead of an autumn call-up would produce this same chart. The gap between 37.85 and 121.56 sq km is itself a methodological artefact: ISW's confirmed figure requires geolocated visual evidence, which structurally undercounts small-group infiltration. Russian and Western maps of the same week can therefore disagree by a factor of three without either side lying.
Mediazona, the exiled Russian outlet that verifies each death by name from obituaries and court records, reached 236,066 confirmed Russian military dead by 3 August, an implied 169 a day3. Its curve has slowed from roughly 330 a day in early June and about 200 a day on 17 July. That does not contradict ISW's record casualty month. ISW counts killed and wounded together across four weeks; Mediazona counts individually confirmed deaths, so its line trails the fighting by however long the names take to surface. Two instruments, two lags, and one direction of travel that neither can settle alone.
