Skip to content
You can now search across every topic, entity and event.What's new
Iran Conflict 2026
12AUG

Iran's rial rises for a war-first time

4 min read
14:52UTC

Iran's currency firmed 1.7 per cent over three days on Rubio's sequencing signal, its first gain since the fighting began, though a six-month 43 per cent slide still stands.

ConflictDeveloping
Key takeaway

The rial firmed 1.7 per cent on Rubio's testimony, but a 43 per cent six-month slide still stands.

The Iranian rial firmed to 1,716,000 to the dollar by Wednesday 3 June, its first gain since the fighting started. It had hit a record 1,746,000 on Monday 1 June , then eased to 1,730,000 on Tuesday, a recovery of roughly 1.7 per cent on the open market tracked by Alanchand 1. Traders moved on Secretary Rubio's sequencing testimony, not on any signed instrument. The gain rests on a Senate sentence, which means it can reverse on the next round of state-media denials.

That 1.7 per cent does not undo much. The currency had shed 43 per cent over six months before this week , and a three-day bounce leaves it close to its record low. A family in Tehran buying imported insulin still pays near-record rial prices at the counter, so the recovery reads on a trading screen long before it reads on a pharmacy receipt. Brent Crude sat around $95 to $97 across the same days, firmer on the same diplomatic optimism 2.

The relief and the squeeze arrived together. OFAC has just cut the stablecoin rail the Central Bank of Iran leaned on to defend this exchange rate , so the very week confidence lifted the rate, Tehran lost its fastest tool to hold it there. The bounce came from hope; the means to sustain it shrank on the same days.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

Iran's currency, the rial, has been losing value steadily since the conflict began in February 2026. On 1 June it hit a record low: 1,746,000 rials to the dollar. Over two days it recovered slightly to 1,716,000, still far weaker than before the conflict but moving in the right direction for the first time in months. The recovery happened because traders interpreted Rubio's Congressional testimony as a sign that a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz might be possible. No agreement has actually been signed, so the rate rests on spoken words rather than a verified commitment. On the same two days, the US Treasury sanctioned the crypto exchanges that Iran's central bank had been using to buy dollars and support the rial, removing that support mechanism on the very days it was being tested.

Deep Analysis
Root Causes

The rial's structural vulnerability has two separate drivers. The first is the 43% accumulated devaluation from the sanctions shock and the conflict slide, which reflects the gap between Iran's export revenues (constrained by sanctions and the Hormuz blockade) and its import demand (inflexible for food, medicine and industrial inputs).

The second is the absence of a credible central-bank intervention mechanism: the CBI cannot defend the rial through conventional foreign-exchange reserve sales because its reserves are partly frozen and partly inaccessible due to its own SDN listing, so it was using informal crypto channels as a substitute.

Brent crude at $95-97 on the same days reflects the same diplomatic optimism, but from the opposite direction: oil traders priced a Hormuz reopening as plausible, which reduces the scarcity premium. The rial and Brent moving on identical signals with opposite sign (rial up, Brent down from conflict peak) confirms that both markets are trading on Rubio's testimony rather than any structural change.

First Reported In

Update #116 · Washington signs a sanction, not a strike

The National· 3 Jun 2026
Read original
Different Perspectives
Anwar Gargash, UAE presidential diplomatic adviser
Anwar Gargash, UAE presidential diplomatic adviser
Gargash warned the region cannot stay trapped between "neither war nor peace", naming the stalemate itself as unsustainable for a Gulf state hosting US forces and absorbing the shipping-risk cost without being party to either the strike decisions or the corridor talks.
Shipping and insurance underwriters
Shipping and insurance underwriters
War-risk premiums are still set against an active blockade and a fatal Bab el-Mandeb attack with an unresolved vessel identity. A disabling strike and a diplomatic "advanced" claim pulling in opposite directions gives underwriters no single signal to reprice cover against.
Pakistan and Qatar (Oman corridor mediators)
Pakistan and Qatar (Oman corridor mediators)
Pakistan's defence minister said matters are "shaping up in favor of peace" on Hormuz and a Qatari spokesperson called the Iran-Oman reopening talks advanced. Both are publicly ahead of Tehran's own security council, which has just disowned the deal's significance.
United States Central Command / President Trump
United States Central Command / President Trump
CENTCOM confirmed a helicopter strike disabled a container ship that tried to evade the blockade, and Trump said the US "totally controls" the Strait of Hormuz. Washington is treating evasion of the blockade as grounds for disabling fire rather than the redirection tactic CENTCOM used through July.
Mohsen Rezaei, Iran's Supreme National Security Council
Mohsen Rezaei, Iran's Supreme National Security Council
Rezaei told China's ambassador Hormuz reopens only when the US ends the war and unblocks Iran's funds, and that the Oman transit deal "will have no impact" on that decision. He is drawing a hard line between the technical corridor track and the political settlement his council controls.
Yemen's internationally recognised government and affected communities
Yemen's internationally recognised government and affected communities
SABA reported at least 17 soldiers killed at Saudi-backed camps in eastern Yemen as tanker use of Bab el-Mandeb fell. The fighting adds civilian and supply risks to a route ships use when Hormuz is unsafe.