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Iran Conflict 2026
12AUG

Brent rebounds as Goldman prices ceasefire risk

1 min read
14:52UTC
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Key takeaway

Markets repriced ceasefire from relief to scepticism in 24 hours

Brent crude rose 2.8% to $97.42 per barrel on 9 April 1, recovering from the $92.21 crash that accompanied the ceasefire announcement . The rebound tracks the violations: each broken promise reprices the structural Hormuz premium markets had briefly retired.

Goldman Sachs cut its Q2 forecast from $99 to $90 on the assumption the ceasefire holds, but flagged $100+ if Hormuz remains restricted for another month and $115 if the ceasefire fails with two-million-barrel-per-day losses 2. The $25 spread between Goldman's floor and ceiling is the market's ceasefire confidence interval. Brent was at $67 before the first strikes; at $97, the price still carries a 45% war premium even after the crash.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

Oil bounced back nearly 3% as ceasefire violations mounted. Goldman Sachs says oil could be anywhere from $90 to $115 depending on whether the ceasefire holds. The $25 gap is Wall Street's way of saying nobody knows if this ceasefire will last. Petrol prices remain far above pre-war levels.

Deep Analysis
Root Causes

The oil market is pricing two simultaneous uncertainties: whether the ceasefire holds, and whether Hormuz actually reopens. The mine charts separate these two questions for the first time.

Sources:CNBC / Reuters·CNBC / Reuters·Goldman Sachs
Mentions:Iraq →Goldman Sachs →war premium →Iran →Prima →Brent Crude →Gulf War →
First Reported In

Update #63 · Ceasefire redistributes the war, not ends it

CNBC / Reuters· 9 Apr 2026
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Causes and effects
This Event
Brent rebounds as Goldman prices ceasefire risk
The $25 spread between Goldman's floor and ceiling is the market's ceasefire confidence interval. Oil at $97 retains a 45% war premium.
Led to
Seven Ships Cross Hormuz, No Oil Tankers
Oil markets repriced on ceasefire announcement (ID:2124); Goldman's $82-$120 Brent scenarios on Day 3 represent the market's updated pricing of persistent Hormuz restriction.
Occurred 10 Apr 2026
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Different Perspectives
Anwar Gargash, UAE presidential diplomatic adviser
Anwar Gargash, UAE presidential diplomatic adviser
Gargash warned the region cannot stay trapped between "neither war nor peace", naming the stalemate itself as unsustainable for a Gulf state hosting US forces and absorbing the shipping-risk cost without being party to either the strike decisions or the corridor talks.
Shipping and insurance underwriters
Shipping and insurance underwriters
War-risk premiums are still set against an active blockade and a fatal Bab el-Mandeb attack with an unresolved vessel identity. A disabling strike and a diplomatic "advanced" claim pulling in opposite directions gives underwriters no single signal to reprice cover against.
Pakistan and Qatar (Oman corridor mediators)
Pakistan and Qatar (Oman corridor mediators)
Pakistan's defence minister said matters are "shaping up in favor of peace" on Hormuz and a Qatari spokesperson called the Iran-Oman reopening talks advanced. Both are publicly ahead of Tehran's own security council, which has just disowned the deal's significance.
United States Central Command / President Trump
United States Central Command / President Trump
CENTCOM confirmed a helicopter strike disabled a container ship that tried to evade the blockade, and Trump said the US "totally controls" the Strait of Hormuz. Washington is treating evasion of the blockade as grounds for disabling fire rather than the redirection tactic CENTCOM used through July.
Mohsen Rezaei, Iran's Supreme National Security Council
Mohsen Rezaei, Iran's Supreme National Security Council
Rezaei told China's ambassador Hormuz reopens only when the US ends the war and unblocks Iran's funds, and that the Oman transit deal "will have no impact" on that decision. He is drawing a hard line between the technical corridor track and the political settlement his council controls.
Yemen's internationally recognised government and affected communities
Yemen's internationally recognised government and affected communities
SABA reported at least 17 soldiers killed at Saudi-backed camps in eastern Yemen as tanker use of Bab el-Mandeb fell. The fighting adds civilian and supply risks to a route ships use when Hormuz is unsafe.