An estimated 100–150 THAAD interceptors were expended in the first week of US operations against Iran — roughly a quarter of the entire global inventory1. Military Watch Magazine calculated US Patriot expenditure at $2.4 billion in five days2. No modern military operation has consumed precision interceptors at this rate.
Lockheed Martin has agreed to quadruple THAAD production from 96 to 400 interceptors per year. At the higher rate, replacing the first week's expenditure would still take four to five months — and the expanded production line does not yet exist. Precision interceptor manufacturing involves specialised seekers, solid-fuel rocket motors, and kill-vehicle components sourced from a small number of qualified suppliers. Comparable post-2022 defence production ramps — Javelin missiles, 155mm artillery shells — took two to three years to deliver meaningful output increases.
The two-theatre bind is immediate. Ukraine already lacked sufficient PAC-3 rounds to intercept the 60 Russian Iskander ballistic missiles per month that Euromaidan Press calculated as the current threat rate3. Reuters sources have warned of delays in Patriot supplies to Ukraine4. Russia, whose oil and gas revenues fell 65% year-on-year in January, has every incentive to increase Ballistic missile tempo while Western interceptor stocks are split between two fronts. The Pentagon's next PAC-3 allocation decision will reveal which theatre Washington treats as the priority.
