Ukraine's long-range strike campaign shifted in the first fortnight of July from static refineries to the seaborne tankers carrying fuel across the Sea of Azov, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported1. Automatic identification system tracking from Starboard Maritime Intelligence, a commercial firm that monitors ship movements, recorded a possible 55% drop in Azov traffic between 30 June and 11 July2.
Through June the campaign had reached deep inside Russia: the Kapotnya refinery near Moscow, the Tyumen plant two thousand kilometres from the border in Siberia, and airbase hangars at Saky on 1 July. Targeting the tankers changes the class of target from fixed installations to moving cargo, and it reaches the fuel at the point it leaves the country.
The tanker campaign works through logistics rather than firepower. Strike the vessels and the fuel cannot sail, so it backs up at the terminals the domestic market also draws on, pushing Russian pump prices higher3. The diesel export ban exists in part to hold that backup inside Russia's borders.
