25JUN

Brent rebounds as Goldman prices ceasefire risk

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14:30UTC

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ConflictDeveloping

Key takeaway

Markets repriced ceasefire from relief to scepticism in 24 hours

Brent crude rose 2.8% to $97.42 per barrel on 9 April⁠¹, recovering from the $92.21 crash that accompanied the ceasefire announcement. The rebound tracks the violations: each broken promise reprices the structural Hormuz premium markets had briefly retired.

Goldman Sachs cut its Q2 forecast from $99 to $90 on the assumption the ceasefire holds, but flagged $100+ if Hormuz remains restricted for another month and $115 if the ceasefire fails with two-million-barrel-per-day losses⁠². The $25 spread between Goldman's floor and ceiling is the market's ceasefire confidence interval. Brent was at $67 before the first strikes; at $97, the price still carries a 45% war premium even after the crash.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

Oil bounced back nearly 3% as ceasefire violations mounted. Goldman Sachs says oil could be anywhere from $90 to $115 depending on whether the ceasefire holds. The $25 gap is Wall Street's way of saying nobody knows if this ceasefire will last. Petrol prices remain far above pre-war levels.

Deep Analysis

Root Causes

The oil market is pricing two simultaneous uncertainties: whether the ceasefire holds, and whether Hormuz actually reopens. The mine charts separate these two questions for the first time.

Source Landscape

This story draws on mixed-leaning sources from United States

United States

Primary parallel: The 1991 Gulf War ceasefire saw Brent drop 30% in a single session before recovering as compliance concerns emerged. The pattern of crash-then-rebound mirrors the current move.

Counter-parallel: The 1991 drop was permanent because Iraq's oil infrastructure was genuinely destroyed. Here, Iran's infrastructure is damaged but the toll system is operational.

Consensus view: Goldman's three-tier forecast ($90/$100/$115) effectively prices the ceasefire as a probability distribution. The midpoint implies markets assign roughly equal weight to partial compliance and partial failure.

Counter-view: The $92-to-$97 rebound may overstate the violation risk; markets are thin and reactive in conflict conditions.

Key tension: At 3% of pre-war Hormuz capacity (4 vs 135 daily transits), the structural premium has a physical enforcement layer (the mine charts) that persists regardless of ceasefire text.

Sources:CNBC / Reuters·CNBC / Reuters·Goldman Sachs

Mentions:Iraq →Goldman Sachs →war premium →Iran →Brent Crude →Gulf War →

First Reported In

Update #63 · Ceasefire redistributes the war, not ends it

CNBC / Reuters· 9 Apr 2026

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Causes and effects

This Event

Brent rebounds as Goldman prices ceasefire risk

The $25 spread between Goldman's floor and ceiling is the market's ceasefire confidence interval. Oil at $97 retains a 45% war premium.

Led to

Seven Ships Cross Hormuz, No Oil Tankers

Oil markets repriced on ceasefire announcement; Goldman's $82-$120 Brent scenarios on Day 3 represent the market's updated pricing of persistent Hormuz restriction.

Occurred 10 Apr 2026

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Different Perspectives

Office for Budget Responsibility

The OBR's 28 October forecast assumed $82 oil for 2026 and 2027, from market prices for the ten working days to 19 August, and blamed dearer wholesale energy on the war without naming Iran. It expects CPI inflation close to 4% in early 2027 even at that price.

Hengaw, Kurdish rights group

Hengaw reported the 3 November hangings of Amirhossein Maleki and Amirhossein Ebrahimi in Isfahan, saying Ebrahimi was tortured into confessing and that nine of 12 people sentenced to death in the case have now been hanged. Iran's judiciary holds that the defendants killed members of the security forces.

FINTRAC, Canada's financial intelligence unit

FINTRAC worked with the US Treasury on the 6 November designation of eight money services businesses in British Columbia, Ontario and Quebec. Treasury says the businesses still operate, some under new names, so closing them falls to Ottawa.

Abdul Qadir al-Dakhil, Governor of Nineveh

Al-Dakhil cancelled three Mosul International Airport contracts on 7 November over alleged links to armed groups, after meeting Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi in Baghdad. He named no group or company, and said the contracts will go to international companies.

Kuwait

Kuwait condemned the Houthi missile fired towards the Madinah region on 5 November and restated its support for Saudi Arabia, the Qatar News Agency reported. Its state tanker company, Kuwait Oil Tankers Company, is among the Gulf state fleets on Iran's expanded Hormuz list.

Scott Bessent, US Treasury Secretary

Treasury designated an alleged Chandigarh false-flag network on 4 November and eight Canadian exchangers on 6 November, while State sanctioned alleged MANPADS intermediaries. None of the actions touches an oil buyer; they target the paper, cash and procurement around Iran's trade.

Written with AI from Lowdown's published reporting. Not individually reviewed by an editor. Editorial standards.