Skip to content
Welcome, thoughtbot's Giant Robots listeners!Start here
Iran Conflict 2026
21JUN

Novak announces partial easing of Russian diesel export curbs

3 min read
17:51UTC

Alexander Novak said Russia would begin easing its diesel export ban early and ramp exports to 3 million tonnes a month, eleven days after Moscow extended the ban.

ConflictDeveloping
Key takeaway

Moscow partially eased a diesel export ban it had extended eleven days earlier.

Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said on 10 October that Russia would begin easing its diesel export restrictions early, with the home market "fully supplied"⁠1. He outlined planned exports of 300,000 tonnes in October, up to 500,000 in November and up to 1 million in December, then up to 3 million tonnes a month.

The government's official information portal reported on 11 October that a partial easing took effect on 10 October, allowing 500,000 tonnes at that stage.

Eleven days earlier the government had done the opposite. On 29 September it rolled the ban on diesel exports by producers on to 31 October, citing a stable domestic fuel market and the autumn harvest⁠2. That roll-over followed an August extension to the end of September, and Novak himself had ordered a study in July into cutting the mandatory domestic exchange-sale quota for diesel.

Putin said in late September, Interfax reported, that diesel would not return to world markets while Western sanctions stood. Within a fortnight Moscow had partially eased the ban, in effect supplying its half of the 9 October Trump-Putin call. Trump's own account on Truth Social, as paraphrased by Reuters, set out the same monthly steps and tied the top volume to the state of Russian refineries⁠3. That condition hands the schedule to the plants Ukraine's drones have spent the year hitting.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

Russia makes more diesel than it uses at home. Over the summer Ukrainian drones damaged its refineries, and fuel ran short in some regions, so the government stopped producers from selling diesel abroad. On 29 September the government kept that ban until 31 October. On 10 October it changed course. Alexander Novak, a deputy prime minister, said the home market had enough fuel and exports would restart, growing month by month. The change came a day after Presidents Putin and Trump spoke by phone and the US opened its market to Russian diesel.

Deep Analysis
Root Causes

Moscow imposed the diesel export ban to protect fuel supply at home. It started as a fixed decree on 8 July that for the first time bound producers as well as traders, after Ukrainian strikes on refineries cut supply.

The ban has a cost. Diesel is the product Russian refineries make in surplus, so a long ban builds stocks, presses margins and denies the state the export duties and taxes that come with foreign sales.

The July study Novak ordered into cutting the mandatory exchange-sale quota shows the government was already looking for ways to move fuel without a formal market. A US licence on 9 October gave Moscow a buyer and a political reason to reopen at once.

What could happen next?
  • Consequence

    Russia earns export duty and hard currency from diesel again, partly offsetting the oil and gas revenue shortfall in its 2026 budget.

  • Risk

    Renewed refinery strikes could force Moscow to choose between its export promise to Washington and supply to its own regions.

First Reported In

Update #28 · US licenses Russian diesel and turns on Kyiv

The Moscow Times· 12 Oct 2026
Read original →
Different Perspectives
Office for Budget Responsibility
Office for Budget Responsibility
The OBR's 28 October forecast assumed $82 oil for 2026 and 2027, from market prices for the ten working days to 19 August, and blamed dearer wholesale energy on the war without naming Iran. It expects CPI inflation close to 4% in early 2027 even at that price.
Hengaw, Kurdish rights group
Hengaw, Kurdish rights group
Hengaw reported the 3 November hangings of Amirhossein Maleki and Amirhossein Ebrahimi in Isfahan, saying Ebrahimi was tortured into confessing and that nine of 12 people sentenced to death in the case have now been hanged. Iran's judiciary holds that the defendants killed members of the security forces.
FINTRAC, Canada's financial intelligence unit
FINTRAC, Canada's financial intelligence unit
FINTRAC worked with the US Treasury on the 6 November designation of eight money services businesses in British Columbia, Ontario and Quebec. Treasury says the businesses still operate, some under new names, so closing them falls to Ottawa.
Abdul Qadir al-Dakhil, Governor of Nineveh
Abdul Qadir al-Dakhil, Governor of Nineveh
Al-Dakhil cancelled three Mosul International Airport contracts on 7 November over alleged links to armed groups, after meeting Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi in Baghdad. He named no group or company, and said the contracts will go to international companies.
Kuwait
Kuwait
Kuwait condemned the Houthi missile fired towards the Madinah region on 5 November and restated its support for Saudi Arabia, the Qatar News Agency reported. Its state tanker company, Kuwait Oil Tankers Company, is among the Gulf state fleets on Iran's expanded Hormuz list.
Scott Bessent, US Treasury Secretary
Scott Bessent, US Treasury Secretary
Treasury designated an alleged Chandigarh false-flag network on 4 November and eight Canadian exchangers on 6 November, while State sanctioned alleged MANPADS intermediaries. None of the actions touches an oil buyer; they target the paper, cash and procurement around Iran's trade.

Written with AI from Lowdown's published reporting. Not individually reviewed by an editor. Editorial standards.