On the evening of 4 March, US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner informed Kyiv they would not travel to Istanbul for the third US-Russia-Ukraine trilateral1. President Zelenskyy confirmed the suspension the following day: "Because of the situation around Iran, there were not yet the necessary signals for a trilateral meeting"2. He named Geneva and Istanbul as viable alternatives when conditions allow.
Ukrainska Pravda reported on 7 March that talks "may take place next week" — the week of 9 March — but no date, venue, or agenda followed3. That week passed without movement. The format had already been under pressure: Bloomberg reported in late February that Russia was weighing a full suspension unless Ukraine pre-committed to ceding four oblasts, and the Abu Dhabi venue was ruled out days earlier because of the wider Middle East conflict. The Iran war gave the format's sceptics — in Moscow and Washington alike — a reason to pause without formally abandoning it.
The freeze strands the technical progress negotiators achieved at Abu Dhabi, where Round 2 produced advances on ceasefire monitoring before deadlocking on territory. Each week without an active track shifts the military balance. Russian forces have pressed toward the Kramatorsk–Sloviansk fortress belt since Pokrovsk fell in December 2025, and a diplomatic vacuum removes whatever restraining effect the prospect of talks might impose on Russian operational tempo. The 121 combat engagements and 9,837 kamikaze drones recorded on 8 March suggest Moscow sees no reason to slow down.
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz told Trump on 3 March that Europe holds an effective veto over any deal it did not help negotiate. That message gains force as a format that already excludes Europe stalls before producing anything for Europe to endorse or reject. Trump had told Zelenskyy in late February he wanted the war ended "in a month". The trilateral was the vehicle for that ambition. Without it, the deadline is hollow — and the suspension hands time to the side with the stronger ground position.
