Skip to content
Briefings are running a touch slower this week while we rebuild the foundations.See roadmap
Iran Conflict 2026
24MAY

Karaj bridge toll rises to thirteen

2 min read
14:49UTC

The US struck an unfinished highway bridge during Iran's most beloved outdoor holiday. Thirteen are dead, 95 wounded, and the toll may still rise.

← Back to Trump says deal; OFAC says nothingJump to analysis ↓
ConflictAssessed
Key takeaway

Thirteen killed at an unfinished bridge on a national holiday gives Tehran its strongest moral argument.

The death toll from the US strike on the B1 highway bridge in Karaj, Alborz province, has risen from 8 to 13, with 95 wounded . The bridge was struck during Sizdah Bedar (Nature Day), the 13th and final day of Nowruz, Iran's most significant outdoor holiday. Thousands of families gather near parks and waterways on Sizdah Bedar. The bridge, still under construction and not yet open to traffic, had no claimed military use. 1

Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said "striking civilian structures including unfinished bridges will not compel Iranians to surrender." Trump posted video of the collapse on Truth Social, calling it "Iran's biggest bridge."

The B1 strike on a national holiday, killing civilians at a gathering with no military nexus, is the clearest case of civilian harm in the campaign to date. The toll may continue to rise.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

Sizdah Bedar is the last day of Iran's spring new year festival. Millions of families go outdoors to parks and riversides. The US struck a bridge in Karaj while people were near it for this holiday. The bridge was still under construction and not yet open to traffic. Thirteen people died. Iran's foreign minister said the strike proved the US was targeting civilians. Trump posted video of the bridge collapsing on Truth Social.

Deep Analysis
Root Causes

CENTCOM's targeting framework designates infrastructure used by military logistics as a legitimate dual-use target under IHL. The B1 bridge was described as a supply route to drone and missile units .

The timing on Sizdah Bedar was either a failure of cultural intelligence, a deliberate signal, or operational indifference. Trump's Truth Social post celebrating the collapse rules out the possibility that the civilian context was weighed as a proportionality factor in target selection.

What could happen next?
  • Consequence

    The Sizdah Bedar timing and Trump's celebratory social media post provide Iran with its strongest propaganda asset of the conflict, directly useful in UN and allied diplomacy.

  • Risk

    The UN Fact-Finding Mission's existing warning about conduct potentially amounting to crimes against humanity will be reinvigorated by this incident. European political pressure on the US will increase.

Sources:Washington Post / Iranian state media·Washington Post / Iranian state media·CNBC / Al Jazeera / NPR
Mentions:Iran →Karaj →Israel →Lebanon →International humanitarian law →Truth Social →Alborz →Prima →ICRC →Baghdad →Nowruz →Abbas Araghchi →B1 highway bridge →Donald Trump →Sizdah Bedar →CENTCOM (US Central Command) →
First Reported In

Update #58 · First US aircraft fall over Iran

Washington Post / Iranian state media· 4 Apr 2026
Read original →
Causes and effects
Caused by
US Strikes Civilian Bridge; Eight Commuters Killed
The US strike on the B1 bridge on 3 April is the event whose toll rose from 8 to 13 dead in this update.
Occurred 3 Apr 2026
Read story →
This Event
Karaj bridge toll rises to thirteen
Striking civilian infrastructure during Sizdah Bedar, with no military nexus, is the clearest case of civilian harm in the campaign.
Different Perspectives
Lloyd's of London
Lloyd's of London
The Joint War Committee left Hormuz war-risk premiums at $10-14 million per voyage on 25 May, declining to move on Brent's 5% fall. The JWC's protocol requires a UN Security Council resolution or bilateral government certification letter before de-listing, and neither has arrived: a verbal understanding does not satisfy the formal condition the reinsurance market's treaty terms require.
Gulf Arab producers
Gulf Arab producers
Saudi Arabia and UAE depend on Hormuz for their own crude exports; Aramco CEO Nasser has warned no oil market recovery arrives until 2027 if the blockade continues past mid-June. Monday's $98.96 Brent settlement shortens nothing for Gulf producers without a signed instrument and a Pentagon mine-clearance timeline that runs up to six months post-ceasefire.
Qatar
Qatar
Qatar holds $12bn of frozen Iranian assets at the centre of the sequencing dispute but cannot release them without explicit US Treasury authorisation, given the original freeze was a US instrument. As the asset-holding state, Qatar's leverage is real but passive: it is the escrow holder, not the decision-maker, and any resolution requires US Treasury sign-off that Trump has withheld.
Pakistan
Pakistan
With both Prime Minister Sharif and army chief Munir simultaneously in Beijing on 25 May, Pakistan has for the first time consolidated its civilian and military mediation tracks under China's roof. Munir's direct Tehran-to-Beijing flight signals that the security and financial threads of the sequencing problem are now being worked in parallel rather than sequentially.
China
China
Beijing hosted Pakistan's principal mediators and Iran's China envoy Ghalibaf simultaneously on 25 May while its banking regulator capped new state-bank lending to five sanctioned refiners. China is simultaneously the most credible third-party underwriter of the $12bn sequencing and the state whose institutions face live OFAC secondary-sanctions exposure if the deadlock persists through GL V's expiry.
United States
United States
Trump posted on 24 May that the blockade holds until a deal is certified and signed, ruling out the informal MOU structure both sides had been building. The 'certified, and signed' condition is the first operational bar Trump has attached in 87 days, but it arrived without an executive instrument, maintaining the gap between posted ultimatum and signed US policy.