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European Oil Markets
31JUL

First net long of the rally on 06765T

2 min read
09:33UTC

Managed money on the Brent Last Day contract held 15,665 lots long against 1,410 short in the week to 21 July, the first positioning print of this cycle to confirm the rally instead of fading it.

EconomicAssessed
Key takeaway

Funds covered a large Brent short and went long days before the price gave back its $100 handle.

The CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) published Commitments of Traders data on 24 July showing managed money on the Brent Last Day contract, code 06765T, holding 15,665 lots long against 1,410 short for the week to 21 July, a net long of 14,255 contracts 1. The CFTC is the US derivatives regulator, and its weekly report is the only public census of who owns the paper behind the price. Managed money covers hedge funds and commodity trading advisers, the fast money that moves first.

Every positioning print this desk logged through July had bet against the rally, from the 23% cut in WTI net length going into the first Hormuz leg to a standalone Brent short that survived the move through $90 . This one goes the other way, a swing of roughly 74,400 contracts in a single week.

Shorts collapsed to 1,410 lots while gross length reached only 15,665, which makes this a liquidation dressed as a position. Traders who capitulate have no cost basis to defend, so a book assembled this way sells faster on a de-escalation headline than a book built by adding length into strength. The short-covering fuel is now spent, and a further leg higher needs buyers who were not trapped.

One timing caveat belongs on the record. The report covers the week to 21 July and was released 24 July, three days before this window opened, so the flip predates the give-back that followed the strike-pause reports. Two markets read the same Red Sea risk in opposite directions inside the same seven days: underwriters priced Saudi-linked hulls as uninsurable while the funds bought.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

Every week, a US regulator called the CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) publishes data showing how big investment funds are betting on the price of oil, specifically a contract linked to Brent crude, the main global oil price benchmark. A fund can bet the price will rise, going long, or fall, going short. For most of July, these funds had bet the oil price would fall. But the data released on 24 July showed that, for the week ending 21 July, they had flipped to betting the price would rise, and by a large margin. This matters because it is the first time this cycle these funds' bets have matched the direction oil prices were actually moving, rather than betting against the rally. It suggests some of the market's biggest traders now think the price rise, driven by Middle East shipping disruption, has further to run, or at least is not about to reverse.

Deep Analysis
Root Causes

Managed money is a reporting category built almost entirely from hedge funds and commodity trading advisers who hold no physical barrels and no hedging need; when a large share of a book is short, a rally forces those positions closed at a loss, and the closing purchases themselves show up in the data as new length even before any fund has taken a fresh directional view.

The report published 24 July covers only the week to 21 July, so it cannot show what happened after Brent's $100 close on 23 July or the give-back that followed reports of a strike pause ; the delay is structural to how the CFTC compiles and releases the data, not a data quality problem.

What could happen next?
  • Risk

    Because the swing looks like short-covering rather than fresh buying, the position could reverse quickly if the price gives back further ground, since traders who closed shorts at a loss have less incentive to add new length into weakness.

  • Meaning

    The flip marks the first week this cycle that speculative positioning and the physical Red Sea disruption have pointed the same direction, rather than funds fading a rally driven by shipping risk.

First Reported In

Update #21 · Insurers shut Bab el-Mandeb to Saudi hulls

Commodity Futures Trading Commission· 31 Jul 2026
Read original
Causes and effects
This Event
First net long of the rally on 06765T
Speculative positioning and the physical Red Sea story have realigned for the first time this cycle, and the short base that fuelled July's move is now spent.
Different Perspectives
Sanctions compliance officer reviewing a Lukoil International GmbH bid
Sanctions compliance officer reviewing a Lukoil International GmbH bid
OFAC's amended FAQ 1224 gives a compliance desk its first published standard: full severance from Lukoil and a US-jurisdiction blocked account for sale proceeds. The conditions name neither ISAB nor Italy, so a Priolo Gargallo-linked bid answers a different question than a Neftochim Burgas or Petrotel Ploiesti one.
Managed-money funds on Brent Last Day
Managed-money funds on Brent Last Day
CFTC data for the week to 21 July showed managed money flipping 74,400 contracts to a net long of 15,665 against 1,410 short on the Brent Last Day contract, code 06765T. A fund that held that short through July has now covered it, and the spent short base raises the bar for the next leg higher.
Saudi crude exporters
Saudi crude exporters
Saudi-linked tanker transits through Bab el-Mandeb fell to about 7.5 a day after the 24 July underwriting withdrawal, pushing more barrels onto the longer route round the Cape or through the Yanbu terminal. Every diverted barrel ties up a ship for longer, and a fleet that turns slower charges more.
Tanker owners on the Bab el-Mandeb route
Tanker owners on the Bab el-Mandeb route
Lloyd's-market syndicates withdrew war-risk cover from Saudi-linked hulls on 24 July, leaving owners of that class of vessel to sail Bab el-Mandeb uninsured or not at all. Tanker transits on the route fell to roughly 7.5 a day, and cover, once withdrawn, does not return on a shipowner's timetable.
Eni
Eni
Eni's board approved second-quarter results on 29 July, swinging refining EBIT to a EUR0.08bn profit from a year-earlier loss even as group profit doubled, and named Red Sea freight cost as a cap on that improvement. A refiner absorbing higher shipping costs on Saudi-linked crude while its numbers improve treats the freight line as a drag, not a crisis.
Asian buyers (India, Japan, China, South Korea)
Asian buyers (India, Japan, China, South Korea)
Asian refiners are absorbing 62% of Yanbu's 3.75m b/d flow, the bulk of Saudi Arabia's rerouted crude now clearing east rather than into the Atlantic basin. That destination split leaves Asian buyers more exposed to any single Yanbu-specific disruption than under the kingdom's normal multi-terminal export pattern.