Two developments landed in an otherwise quiet window. ACER's first monitoring report finds the EU's Russian-gas phase-out has not yet cut Russian volumes, with the real repricing deferred to 2027. The 29 June Hormuz stand-down has not reopened the strait, because a naval-escort ceiling, not diplomacy, sets the pace.
Announced bans and stand-downs aren't the constraint; contractual carve-outs and escort logistics are.
ACER's first phase-out monitoring report, published 1 July, found Russian gas still met roughly 12% of EU demand, with LNG imports up 17% since the March ban and only Strandzha-1 flows falling.
FranceACER's first monitoring report on the EU's Russian gas ban, published 1 July, found Russian gas still supplied 12% of EU demand in the report's window, with Russian LNG imports up 17% year-on-year and pipeline imports up 5%.
The ban only targets new short-term deals; long-term contracts run until 2027 untouched. Strandzha-1 flows fell 65%, the one real casualty of a rule built to bite later, not now.
Four days on from the 29 June verbal stand-down, IMF PortWatch counts 27 to 43 Hormuz transits a day against a baseline near 84, and QatarEnergy runs at 35% of nameplate.
Four days after Iran's 29 June stand-down, Strait of Hormuz traffic is still a fraction of normal. IMF PortWatch counted 27 to 43 transits a day in early July, against a roughly 84-transit pre-crisis baseline.
QatarEnergy is running at about 35% of capacity, trailing the 50%-within-a-month pace it promised. War-risk insurers, not Tehran, are setting the restart clock.
ACER's report maps 45 to 55 bcm a year of authorised Russian contracts still flowing into named importers, with the full LNG and pipeline ban deferred to November 2027.
ACER's 1 July report maps 45-55 bcm a year of Russian gas still authorised under contracts running to November 2027: pipeline gas into Hungary, Slovakia and Greece, and LNG cargoes into Spain, France, Belgium and the Netherlands.
The real supply cliff is 16 months out, not now. Forward curves pricing 2027-28 delivery need to account for a step-change that current spreads don't reflect.
Lloyd's List reports naval escorts can clear only three to four tankers a day through Hormuz on seven to eight warships, a ceiling that caps the restart regardless of diplomacy.
United KingdomLloyd's List reports that naval escort convoys, not diplomacy, now cap Hormuz LNG throughput at three to four tankers a day, running on seven to eight warships.
That ceiling won't lift until more escort ships join the corridor. QatarEnergy's restart pace is bound by convoy capacity, a logistics constraint rather than a political one.
Sideways on both threads: the ban's real repricing event sits at the November 2027 TurkStream and LNG contract expiry, and Hormuz throughput only steps up if more escort warships are committed to the corridor, a decision resting with the naval coalition rather than with Tehran or Doha.
AI-assisted, human-edited under the editorial responsibility of Bannermedia Ltd. Reviewed by Ed Woodcock on 3 July 2026. Editorial standards.
