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European Energy Markets
15APR

Asian LNG down 8.6% as Wheatstone stays offline

3 min read
13:33UTC

Kpler data via OilPrice.com shows Asian imports at 20.6 Mt in March, the largest year-on-year drop since December 2020.

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Key takeaway

Asian softness is the mechanism for Atlantic cargoes to return, but the data lag is weeks.

Asian LNG imports fell 8.6% year-on-year in March 2026 to 20.6 million tonnes, the largest annual decline since December 2020, per Kpler data relayed by OilPrice.com 1. Pakistan dropped 70%, India and China each around 20%. Wheatstone (8.9 Mtpa, or million tonnes per annum) remains offline weeks after Cyclone Narelle; Gorgon restarted on 29 March.

The composition matters for European readers. Asian demand softness plus a Gorgon restart widens the JKM-TTF spread once it feeds through, which in turn allows European buyers to bid Atlantic cargoes back against Asian demand. That dynamic is the reverse of the roughly dozen cargoes redirected toward Asian buyers since early March on JKM-TTF parity . A Wheatstone restart would amplify the effect: recovering Pacific-basin supply displaces Asian spot bidding further, giving Europe a cleaner run at US cargoes in the injection window.

None of that is visible yet in the European tape. ALSI terminal inventory is still drawing context), The current TTF print may already be discounting some of the Asian softness ahead of any confirmation, and the data lag between a Kpler print on Asian demand and a widening JKM-TTF spread runs to weeks. The confirmation signal that traders should watch is a Wheatstone restart date or a Gorgon ramp-rate disclosure, not the headline demand number.

For European households the useful read is that tariff relief is still a quarter or more away even if the spot tape cooperates from here. The Asian slack exists; it has not yet reached the molecule.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

Asia imports roughly the same total volume of liquefied natural gas as Europe, and when Asian buyers are paying high prices they pull supply away from European ports. In March 2026, Asian imports fell 8.6% compared to the same month last year, meaning Asian buyers were taking less. Two things explain this: Pakistan has almost stopped buying because it cannot afford current prices, and countries like India and China bought less than usual. Separately, a large Australian LNG plant called Wheatstone was knocked out by a cyclone and is still offline weeks later. For Europe, the soft Asian demand is briefly helpful because it means fewer ships are being diverted away. But the Wheatstone outage reduces total global supply, so the relief may not last long.

What could happen next?
  • Opportunity

    Pakistan's 70% demand withdrawal and Asian import softness temporarily reduces competition for Atlantic LNG cargoes, giving EU terminal operators a window to attract replacement supply before summer demand recovers in Asia.

  • Risk

    Wheatstone's continued outage removes 8.9 Mtpa of Pacific supply, which will push JKM higher once Asian demand recovers for summer cooling season in May-June, re-diverting Atlantic cargoes away from Europe at the start of the critical injection season.

Sources:OilPrice.com
Mentions:Kpler →Wheatstone →Gorgon →Cyclone Narelle →China →India →Pakistan →Tokyo →Wood Mackenzie →Japan →TTF →OilPrice.com →JKM →GIE ALSI →
First Reported In

Update #2 · TTF EUR 42 as Russian LNG ban enters range

OilPrice.com· 15 Apr 2026
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