15APR

Asian LNG down 8.6% as Wheatstone stays offline

3 min read

13:33UTC

Kpler data via OilPrice.com shows Asian imports at 20.6 Mt in March, the largest year-on-year drop since December 2020.

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Key takeaway

Asian softness is the mechanism for Atlantic cargoes to return, but the data lag is weeks.

Asian LNG imports fell 8.6% year-on-year in March 2026 to 20.6 million tonnes, the largest annual decline since December 2020, per Kpler data relayed by OilPrice.com ¹. Pakistan dropped 70%, India and China each around 20%. Wheatstone (8.9 Mtpa, or million tonnes per annum) remains offline weeks after Cyclone Narelle; Gorgon restarted on 29 March.

The composition matters for European readers. Asian demand softness plus a Gorgon restart widens the JKM-TTF spread once it feeds through, which in turn allows European buyers to bid Atlantic cargoes back against Asian demand. That dynamic is the reverse of the roughly dozen cargoes redirected toward Asian buyers since early March on JKM-TTF parity . A Wheatstone restart would amplify the effect: recovering Pacific-basin supply displaces Asian spot bidding further, giving Europe a cleaner run at US cargoes in the injection window.

None of that is visible yet in the European tape. ALSI terminal inventory is still drawing context, The current TTF print may already be discounting some of the Asian softness ahead of any confirmation, and the data lag between a Kpler print on Asian demand and a widening JKM-TTF spread runs to weeks. The confirmation signal that traders should watch is a Wheatstone restart date or a Gorgon ramp-rate disclosure, not the headline demand number.

For European households the useful read is that tariff relief is still a quarter or more away even if the spot tape cooperates from here. The Asian slack exists; it has not yet reached the molecule.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

Asia imports roughly the same total volume of liquefied natural gas as Europe, and when Asian buyers are paying high prices they pull supply away from European ports. In March 2026, Asian imports fell 8.6% compared to the same month last year, meaning Asian buyers were taking less. Two things explain this: Pakistan has almost stopped buying because it cannot afford current prices, and countries like India and China bought less than usual. Separately, a large Australian LNG plant called Wheatstone was knocked out by a cyclone and is still offline weeks later. For Europe, the soft Asian demand is briefly helpful because it means fewer ships are being diverted away. But the Wheatstone outage reduces total global supply, so the relief may not last long.

What could happen next?

Opportunity
Pakistan's 70% demand withdrawal and Asian import softness temporarily reduces competition for Atlantic LNG cargoes, giving EU terminal operators a window to attract replacement supply before summer demand recovers in Asia.
Risk
Wheatstone's continued outage removes 8.9 Mtpa of Pacific supply, which will push JKM higher once Asian demand recovers for summer cooling season in May-June, re-diverting Atlantic cargoes away from Europe at the start of the critical injection season.

Source Landscape

This story draws on centre-leaning sources from United States

United States

LeftRight

Wheatstone's 8.9 Mtpa capacity offline for an unknown duration represents approximately 740,000 tonnes per month of Pacific Basin LNG removal. Gorgon's restart partially offsets this: Gorgon has approximately 15.6 Mtpa capacity and a restart from maintenance adds perhaps 200-300,000 tonnes per month incrementally.

The net effect is a Pacific Basin supply gap of roughly 450-540,000 tonnes per month. Against Asian LNG imports of 20.6 Mt in March (already 8.6% below year-on-year), this means Asia is simultaneously demand-soft and supply-constrained on the Pacific side. For Europe, the implications run in opposite directions: demand softness loosens competition for Atlantic cargoes, while supply-side tightness raises the price Asia will pay when demand recovers.

Consensus view: Wood Mackenzie Asia LNG analysts assess that Pakistan's 70% year-on-year import collapse is not structural demand destruction but a price-induced withdrawal: Pakistan's power sector cannot pass through LNG costs above USD 13-14/MMBtu to consumers, making Japanese LNG spot prices at USD 15.5/MMBtu unaffordable without subsidy.

Pakistan has historically been the most price-sensitive swing buyer in Asia; its absence from the market this spring has compressed Asian clearing prices and reduced the JKM-TTF spread that was incentivising European cargo diversions.

Counter-view: Tokyo-based Institute of Energy Economics, Japan (IEEJ) warns that Pakistan's absence is temporary. Approaching summer air-conditioning demand season and the Wheatstone outage removing 8.9 Mtpa from global supply will push Asian prices higher through May. If JKM rises back above TTF by USD 2/MMBtu, the diversion pressure on Atlantic cargoes will resume, leaving Europe with a supply gap heading into injection season.

Key tension: Whether the Gorgon restart on 29 March provides enough Pacific Basin supply to offset Wheatstone's continued outage, or whether the two events net out leaving overall Asian supply in deficit.

Sources:OilPrice.com

Mentions:Kpler →Wheatstone →Gorgon →Cyclone Narelle →China →India →Pakistan →Tokyo →Wood Mackenzie →Japan →TTF →OilPrice.com →JKM →GIE ALSI →

First Reported In

Update #2 · TTF EUR 42 as Russian LNG ban enters range

OilPrice.com· 15 Apr 2026

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Causes and effects

This Event

Asian LNG down 8.6% as Wheatstone stays offline

Asian demand slack plus Gorgon restart could release Atlantic cargoes back to Europe, but the data does not yet show it.

Led to

[RETRACTED] Equinor shuts Hammerfest LNG from 22 April

Wheatstone Train 2 remaining offline compounded the global LNG offset impairment that Hammerfest maintenance joins from 22 April.

Occurred 22 Apr 2026

Read story →

Different Perspectives

EU carbon and storage regulators

EUA carbon broke EUR 81/tonne on 13 July as the ETS Market Stability Reserve's scheduled withdrawals met fresh fuel-switching demand from France's nuclear curtailment. Brussels' mandatory storage-fill rule kept German and French injection running regardless of the TTF swings, the mechanism working as designed four years after the 2022 shock.

Equinor

Equinor returned its Asgard field from maintenance on 11 July, lifting Gassco's exit nominations to 319.8 mcm/day just as TTF round-tripped on Hormuz risk. The restart gave Norway spare pipeline capacity to help Europe absorb the gas rally without drawing down storage, reinforcing its role as the post-2022 swing supplier.

Germany

Germany briefly became the cheaper leg of the FR-DE spread on 12 July as French reactors went offline, while its own storage injection tripled to 723 GWh on 11 July under the EU's mandatory fill rule. Berlin's CCGT fleet absorbed the extra load at a time when EUA's climb past EUR 81 is raising its own marginal cost too.

EDF

EDF took Chooz, Golfech and Bugey fully offline on 12 July under river-cooling discharge limits, then secured a temperature exemption for Bugey to 20 July rather than wait for the rivers to cool. The government's willingness to relax the environmental ceiling shows French grid security now outweighs the permit breach when reactor hardware itself is undamaged.

Storage and injection-pace desk

EU storage sat at 51.1% on 8 July, still running below the pace needed for an 80% November target, and the JKM-TTF Asia premium of roughly USD 1.4-2.4/MMBtu was already pulling marginal cargoes east before Qatar's withdrawal compounded the gap. October's top-up remains the binding constraint, not this week's price level.

EDF / France

EDF added Chooz to its heat-curtailment watch list as a precaution against the second heat dome peaking 9-14 July, alongside standing warnings at Blayais, Bugey, Golfech and Saint-Alban. No output cut has been confirmed at any site as of 10 July.