15APR

Asian LNG down 8.6% as Wheatstone stays offline

3 min read

13:33UTC

Kpler data via OilPrice.com shows Asian imports at 20.6 Mt in March, the largest year-on-year drop since December 2020.

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Key takeaway

Asian softness is the mechanism for Atlantic cargoes to return, but the data lag is weeks.

Asian LNG imports fell 8.6% year-on-year in March 2026 to 20.6 million tonnes, the largest annual decline since December 2020, per Kpler data relayed by OilPrice.com ¹. Pakistan dropped 70%, India and China each around 20%. Wheatstone (8.9 Mtpa, or million tonnes per annum) remains offline weeks after Cyclone Narelle; Gorgon restarted on 29 March.

The composition matters for European readers. Asian demand softness plus a Gorgon restart widens the JKM-TTF spread once it feeds through, which in turn allows European buyers to bid Atlantic cargoes back against Asian demand. That dynamic is the reverse of the roughly dozen cargoes redirected toward Asian buyers since early March on JKM-TTF parity . A Wheatstone restart would amplify the effect: recovering Pacific-basin supply displaces Asian spot bidding further, giving Europe a cleaner run at US cargoes in the injection window.

None of that is visible yet in the European tape. ALSI terminal inventory is still drawing context), The current TTF print may already be discounting some of the Asian softness ahead of any confirmation, and the data lag between a Kpler print on Asian demand and a widening JKM-TTF spread runs to weeks. The confirmation signal that traders should watch is a Wheatstone restart date or a Gorgon ramp-rate disclosure, not the headline demand number.

For European households the useful read is that tariff relief is still a quarter or more away even if the spot tape cooperates from here. The Asian slack exists; it has not yet reached the molecule.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

Asia imports roughly the same total volume of liquefied natural gas as Europe, and when Asian buyers are paying high prices they pull supply away from European ports. In March 2026, Asian imports fell 8.6% compared to the same month last year, meaning Asian buyers were taking less. Two things explain this: Pakistan has almost stopped buying because it cannot afford current prices, and countries like India and China bought less than usual. Separately, a large Australian LNG plant called Wheatstone was knocked out by a cyclone and is still offline weeks later. For Europe, the soft Asian demand is briefly helpful because it means fewer ships are being diverted away. But the Wheatstone outage reduces total global supply, so the relief may not last long.

What could happen next?

Opportunity
Pakistan's 70% demand withdrawal and Asian import softness temporarily reduces competition for Atlantic LNG cargoes, giving EU terminal operators a window to attract replacement supply before summer demand recovers in Asia.
Risk
Wheatstone's continued outage removes 8.9 Mtpa of Pacific supply, which will push JKM higher once Asian demand recovers for summer cooling season in May-June, re-diverting Atlantic cargoes away from Europe at the start of the critical injection season.

Source Landscape

This story draws on centre-leaning sources from United States

United States

LeftRight

Wheatstone's 8.9 Mtpa capacity offline for an unknown duration represents approximately 740,000 tonnes per month of Pacific Basin LNG removal. Gorgon's restart partially offsets this: Gorgon has approximately 15.6 Mtpa capacity and a restart from maintenance adds perhaps 200-300,000 tonnes per month incrementally.

The net effect is a Pacific Basin supply gap of roughly 450-540,000 tonnes per month. Against Asian LNG imports of 20.6 Mt in March (already 8.6% below year-on-year), this means Asia is simultaneously demand-soft and supply-constrained on the Pacific side. For Europe, the implications run in opposite directions: demand softness loosens competition for Atlantic cargoes, while supply-side tightness raises the price Asia will pay when demand recovers.

Consensus view: Wood Mackenzie Asia LNG analysts assess that Pakistan's 70% year-on-year import collapse is not structural demand destruction but a price-induced withdrawal: Pakistan's power sector cannot pass through LNG costs above USD 13-14/MMBtu to consumers, making Japanese LNG spot prices at USD 15.5/MMBtu unaffordable without subsidy.

Pakistan has historically been the most price-sensitive swing buyer in Asia; its absence from the market this spring has compressed Asian clearing prices and reduced the JKM-TTF spread that was incentivising European cargo diversions.

Counter-view: Tokyo-based Institute of Energy Economics, Japan (IEEJ) warns that Pakistan's absence is temporary. Approaching summer air-conditioning demand season and the Wheatstone outage removing 8.9 Mtpa from global supply will push Asian prices higher through May. If JKM rises back above TTF by USD 2/MMBtu, the diversion pressure on Atlantic cargoes will resume, leaving Europe with a supply gap heading into injection season.

Key tension: Whether the Gorgon restart on 29 March provides enough Pacific Basin supply to offset Wheatstone's continued outage, or whether the two events net out leaving overall Asian supply in deficit.

Sources:OilPrice.com

Mentions:Kpler →Wheatstone →Gorgon →Cyclone Narelle →China →India →Pakistan →Tokyo →Wood Mackenzie →Japan →TTF →OilPrice.com →JKM →GIE ALSI →

First Reported In

Update #2 · TTF EUR 42 as Russian LNG ban enters range

OilPrice.com· 15 Apr 2026

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Causes and effects

This Event

Asian LNG down 8.6% as Wheatstone stays offline

Asian demand slack plus Gorgon restart could release Atlantic cargoes back to Europe, but the data does not yet show it.

Led to

[RETRACTED] Equinor shuts Hammerfest LNG from 22 April

Wheatstone Train 2 remaining offline compounded the global LNG offset impairment that Hammerfest maintenance joins from 22 April.

Occurred 22 Apr 2026

Read story →

Different Perspectives

Amsterdam-Rotterdam gas trading desks

TTF failing to sustain EUR 47+ with 51 mcm/day of Norwegian capacity offline confirms EUR 50 as a diplomatic ceiling; the curve is a Troll-restart long, and EBN's EUR 233 million mandate budget cap is a known limit on price-insensitive prompt buying.

ARERA

Italy's energy regulator is running mandatory storage injection that carries the EU aggregate trajectory alongside CRE and EBN, while Italian industrial consumers at Panigaglia face a simultaneously low-utilisation terminal and a EUR 2/MWh delivered-cost basis above TTF. The mandate funds security of supply at the expense of Italian competitiveness.

Shell

As a long-term Russian LNG contract holder, Shell faces a replacement procurement problem concentrated in Q3-Q4 2026 ahead of the 1 January 2027 double cliff; with terminal booking lead times running weeks, the real deadline is late November 2026 and no replacement supply has been publicly named.

CRE

France's 100% mandatory booking order funds injection regardless of the inverted strip, providing the EU aggregate cover that Germany's abolished levy cannot; the CRE order is renewed annually, making it a political risk rather than a structural guarantee. That dependency exposes the EU injection trajectory to French electoral cycles.

Bundesnetzagentur

Germany's regulator holds the early-warning gas stage active with no statutory instrument to compel commercial injection, and Berlin confirmed on 20 May it will introduce no summer incentive scheme; Germany is the EU's only major unincentivised storage market after the levy lapsed on 1 January 2026. The mandate gap is carried by three other member states.

European Commission

The Commission relaxed the mandatory fill target from 90% to 80% and published an ETS benchmark revision saving industry EUR 4 billion, choosing industrial competitiveness over both climate and storage ambition at the moment physical margins are tightest. Both decisions reduce policy pressure at the exact week the trajectory margin narrowed to 45 GWh/day.