26OCT

Zelenskyy talks guarantees with US envoy

2 min read

15:07UTC

Volodymyr Zelenskyy met the US envoy in Oslo on 20 October and said Witkoff would carry a paper of security guarantee options to Moscow.

← Back to China puts drone-part exports under licence Jump to analysis ↓

TechnologyDeveloping

Key takeaway

Kyiv sent guarantee options to Moscow through Witkoff, and Putin's aide saw little in them.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy met the US special envoy Steve Witkoff in Oslo on 20 October with Norway's prime minister, Jonas Gahr Støre, and Finland's president, Alexander Stubb⁠¹. Jared Kushner joined remotely. Zelenskyy said Witkoff would take a paper of security guarantee options to Moscow, where the envoy saw Putin a day later⁠².

Zelenskyy said they discussed ceasefire formats. One was the Article 5 guarantee of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), under which an attack on one member is an attack on all; another was an "Article 5 light", which he did not define. The Finnish presidency said the talks aimed at "a lasting and just peace in Ukraine" and at post-war reconstruction. "Peace requires patience, but war doesn't wait," Stubb said⁠³.

In Moscow, Ushakov said Witkoff briefed Putin on Oslo talks that included European, NATO and European Commission representatives. Witkoff highlighted certain "new approaches" in the European and Ukrainian positions, Ushakov said, although Ushakov's own view was that there was "little in them that could help resolve the Ukraine crisis"⁠⁴.

Zelenskyy had offered to stop hitting Russian refineries if Russia spared Ukraine's grid. On 20 October he wrote that Ukraine was ready to hold off Russian energy targets if Russia stopped attacking Ukraine's, and that "Putin said no"⁠⁵.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

Ukraine wants a promise that if it agrees to a ceasefire, Russia will not simply attack again later. That promise is called a security guarantee. The strongest version is Article 5 of NATO, the Western military alliance. Under it, an attack on one member counts as an attack on all. Ukraine is not a NATO member. Zelenskyy, Ukraine's president, discussed options with Steve Witkoff, Donald Trump's envoy, in Oslo, Norway's capital. One option he called "Article 5 light", without saying what it meant. Witkoff then took the ideas to Russia.

Deep Analysis

Root Causes

Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty already lets each ally take "such action as it deems necessary" after an attack. Its force comes from US troops and nuclear backing, not its wording, so any guarantee outside NATO must rebuild that backing through bilateral pledges.

The Nordic hosts have their own stake. Finland shares a border of about 1,340km with Russia and joined NATO in April 2023, so Helsinki would sit on the front line of any guarantee that failed.

Escalation

Holding. Both capitals are exchanging written options, but Zelenskyy's report that "Putin said no" to a mutual halt on energy strikes shows the air war continuing while guarantees are drafted.

What could happen next?

Meaning
Kyiv is now negotiating over the form of a guarantee rather than over NATO membership itself.
Risk
An undefined "Article 5 light" lets each party read its own terms into the paper Witkoff carries, storing up disputes for the November round.

Source Landscape

This story draws on neutral-leaning sources from Ukraine (includes Ukraine state media)

Ukraine

Primary parallel: The Budapest Memorandum of December 1994 gave Ukraine security assurances from the US, Britain and Russia in return for surrendering Soviet nuclear weapons. It created no obligation to defend Ukraine, and Russia breached it in 2014 without any signatory being bound to respond.

Counter-parallel: The US-South Korea Mutual Defense Treaty, signed in October 1953 two months after the Korean War armistice, paired a treaty with US troops based on the peninsula. The armistice line has held for more than 70 years with no peace treaty.

Consensus view: One reading of the Oslo options is that guarantees short of NATO membership deter only when they bind a named state to act and put its forces on the ground. A paper pledge alone invites Moscow to test it.

Counter-view: On 8 January 2026 Maria Zakharova, spokeswoman for Russia's foreign ministry, said Western military units and facilities deployed in Ukraine would be legitimate targets for Russia's armed forces. She spoke after Britain and France pledged troops for a post-ceasefire force, so Moscow treats the hardware of a guarantee, not its wording, as the red line.

Key tension: Whether an "Article 5 light" means weaker wording with foreign troops present, or strong wording with none, two options Kyiv and Moscow rank in opposite order.

First Reported In

Update #30 · Kremlin floats 10 November talks as diesel deal work begins

Ukrinform· 22 Oct 2026

Read original →

Causes and effects

Caused by

Zelenskyy ties elections to a ceasefire

Zelenskyy said Putin rejected his offer to halt refinery strikes in return for an end to grid attacks.

Occurred 11 Oct 2026

Read story →

This Event

Zelenskyy talks guarantees with US envoy

Kyiv's guarantee options reached Putin the next day, and the Kremlin's first public response dismissed them.

Led to

Putin offers November talks, aide says

Witkoff briefed Putin on the Oslo talks and carried their security guarantee paper to him.

Occurred 21 Oct 2026

Read story →

Different Perspectives

Nigerian Air Force

The air force listed 12 Turkish Aksungur and two Chinese CH-4D armed drones on 25 October. No contract has been published, so these are plans.

Civilians in Western Sahara

A UN report of October 2023 records allegations of Moroccan drone strikes east of the berm. An aerial strike there in November 2022 reportedly killed six civilians, the UN said, citing Polisario and local media.

Thunder Tiger

The Taichung company said on 16 October that all 1,520 of its Gauntlet I attack drones passed inspection. Its MoU with AeroVironment covers fitting Switchblade to its uncrewed boats and ground vehicles and exploring joint production in Taiwan.

EDGE Group

The Emirati group said on 9 October it will supply glide bombs and guidance kits for the Royal Moroccan Air Force's armed drones. A separate memorandum explores making small arms and aero engines in Morocco.

Rajnath Singh

India's Defence Acquisition Council, which he chairs, approved about Rs 2.12 lakh crore of proposals on 26 October, including kamikaze drones and tank-mounted counter-drone systems. About 82 per cent of the value is to go to Indian industry, by the ministry's account.

Kongsberg

The Norwegian group said on 13 October it will invest more than 200m zlotys in a Pomeranian plant to build and maintain SAN counter-drone systems. It expects series output to begin in the first half of 2028.

Written with AI from Lowdown's published reporting. Not individually reviewed by an editor. Editorial standards.