Six US grid operators file, none say yes

All six US regional transmission organisations (RTO), the non-profit bodies that run wholesale power markets and dispatch electricity across multi-state regions, filed the generation-adequacy reports the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) ordered by 20 July . The filings reach us summarised by docket in a Day Pitney memorandum to NEPOOL committees dated 23 July and hosted on ISO-NE's site, rather than through the filings themselves ¹. Every one of the six says its markets hold in the near term. Not one claims it can serve its data-centre queue under current rules, and all six propose new tools instead.

ISO-NE goes furthest. It proposes that new large loads bring their own new generation, and that they be excluded from the load forecasts used to set the Installed Capacity Requirement, the volume of capacity the market buys each year to cover forecast peak demand plus a reserve margin ². A data centre excluded from that requirement has no capacity bought on its behalf. It supplies its own energy or accepts curtailment. New England has seen almost none of this load and its demand has been flat or falling for a decade, so the proposal is pre-emptive rather than a response to strain.

The Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO), covering 15 central US states, cites a possible 4.7 GW shortfall by 2028 and will file a parallel study process for loads of 250 MW and above ³. The New York Independent System Operator (NYISO) sees no statewide deficiency until 2033, with New York City needs from 2031, and does not attribute an imminent gap to data centres at all. The California Independent System Operator (CAISO) and the Southwest Power Pool (SPP) are the slowest, both targeting filings on 16 November.

The spread between NYISO's 2033 and MISO's 2028 is the useful detail. These are not six regions in identical trouble; they are six regions writing the same clause into their rulebooks anyway, because the load arrives faster than a generator can be built and every operator would rather have the tool before it needs it.