4AUG

Six US grid operators file, none say yes

3 min read

10:53UTC

All six US regional transmission organisations filed the generation-adequacy reports FERC ordered, and not one claims it can serve its data-centre queue under existing market rules.

← Back to Ofgem prices the grid queue by the megawatt Jump to analysis ↓

IndustryDeveloping

Key takeaway

Every US regional grid operator told FERC its current rules cannot accommodate the data-centre queue.

All six US regional transmission organisations (RTO), the non-profit bodies that run wholesale power markets and dispatch electricity across multi-state regions, filed the generation-adequacy reports the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) ordered by 20 July . The filings reach us summarised by docket in a Day Pitney memorandum to NEPOOL committees dated 23 July and hosted on ISO-NE's site, rather than through the filings themselves ¹. Every one of the six says its markets hold in the near term. Not one claims it can serve its data-centre queue under current rules, and all six propose new tools instead.

ISO-NE goes furthest. It proposes that new large loads bring their own new generation, and that they be excluded from the load forecasts used to set the Installed Capacity Requirement, the volume of capacity the market buys each year to cover forecast peak demand plus a reserve margin ². A data centre excluded from that requirement has no capacity bought on its behalf. It supplies its own energy or accepts curtailment. New England has seen almost none of this load and its demand has been flat or falling for a decade, so the proposal is pre-emptive rather than a response to strain.

The Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO), covering 15 central US states, cites a possible 4.7 GW shortfall by 2028 and will file a parallel study process for loads of 250 MW and above ³. The New York Independent System Operator (NYISO) sees no statewide deficiency until 2033, with New York City needs from 2031, and does not attribute an imminent gap to data centres at all. The California Independent System Operator (CAISO) and the Southwest Power Pool (SPP) are the slowest, both targeting filings on 16 November.

The spread between NYISO's 2033 and MISO's 2028 is the useful detail. These are not six regions in identical trouble; they are six regions writing the same clause into their rulebooks anyway, because the load arrives faster than a generator can be built and every operator would rather have the tool before it needs it.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

In the United States, regional grid operators are responsible for making sure there is enough electricity supply to meet demand where they operate. US energy regulator FERC ordered all six of these operators to report whether they can handle the wave of new data centres wanting to connect. None of them said yes under their current rules. Instead, each is proposing a different fix, from New England requiring data centres to bring their own power plants, to the mid-Atlantic region running a special one-off auction to buy extra capacity.

Deep Analysis

Root Causes

The structural cause identified across all six filings is that resource adequacy planning was built around gradual, geographically dispersed load growth, while data centres add large, concentrated blocks of demand at single substations within a matter of quarters, faster than new generation can typically be permitted and built.

A second structural driver, specific to ISO-NE, is that New England's overall load has been flat or declining for a decade, so its capacity market was never designed with mechanisms to absorb a new class of large, fast-growing demand; ISO-NE's own filing states it has 'not yet encountered significant large-load growth such as data centers,' meaning its proposed reform is pre-emptive rather than a response to an existing shortfall.

What could happen next?

Risk
Without new tools, six separate US grid regions collectively project they cannot serve the data-centre queue they have already received.
Precedent
ISO-NE's proposed self-supply requirement for new large loads, if adopted, gives other US grid operators a second working model beyond SPP's existing large-load tariff.

Source Landscape

This story draws on neutral-leaning sources

Primary parallel: ISO-NE's proposal to exclude new large loads from its Installed Capacity Requirement, forcing them to bring their own generation, mirrors the Southwest Power Pool's existing Conditional High Impact Large Load Service, already in effect, which requires large loads to supply their own energy or accept curtailment rather than drawing on the shared capacity market.

Counter-parallel: PJM has taken the opposite structural approach, choosing to procure additional shared capacity through a backstop auction rather than requiring large loads to self-supply, which means the same underlying problem, data-centre load growth outpacing available generation, is being solved through two structurally different mechanisms across neighbouring grids.

Consensus view: The Day Pitney LLP memorandum, prepared for the NEPOOL committees and summarising all six RTO filings by docket, finds that every operator reports its existing market frameworks remain adequate in the near term while acknowledging none were built for the speed and concentration of new large-load demand.

Counter-view: NYISO's own filing breaks from that pattern: it does not project an imminent shortfall from data centres specifically, with its preliminary Reliability Needs Assessment showing a statewide deficiency first appearing only in 2033, unlike PJM and MISO, which report near-term pressure.

Key tension: Whether data-centre-driven grid strain is a national phenomenon requiring a common regulatory response, or a regional one concentrated in the RTOs already carrying the heaviest load-growth forecasts, such as PJM and MISO.

Sources:Day Pitney LLP (hosted by ISO New England)

Mentions:FERC →ISO-NE →MISO →NYISO →CAISO →SPP →England →California →New York →United States →

First Reported In

Update #12 · Ofgem prices the grid queue by the megawatt

Day Pitney LLP (hosted by ISO New England)· 4 Aug 2026

Read original →

Causes and effects

Caused by

FERC sets a 20 July adequacy deadline

FERC's 20 July order requiring the six RTOs to file generation-adequacy reports directly produced the filings summarised in the NEPOOL memo.

Occurred 19 Jul 2026

Read story →

This Event

Six US grid operators file, none say yes

Six operators with different fuel mixes, weather and politics reached the same conclusion independently, which is harder to dismiss than any single filing.

Different Perspectives

Government of Odisha

Odisha signed a $1.5bn agreement with HCLTech and Sarvam AI on 24 July for a sovereign AI data centre in Bhubaneswar, targeting 2028 operations. While regulators elsewhere price developers out of the queue, Odisha is bidding state financial assistance to bring capacity in, betting the AI infrastructure boom is worth courting rather than rationing.

Switch Datacenters and Uithoorn

The developer, the municipality, Liander and dozens of greenhouse growers signed a waste-heat agreement letting a 60 MVA facility proceed under a provincial rule that bans sites above 5 MVA. The public-interest exception argues the site relieves rather than adds to grid congestion, working around a standing ban from inside rather than waiting for it to change.

Iskandar Puteri residents

Residents protested in February over falling water pressure they attribute to ZDATA's 300 MW construction; ZDATA disputes causation and has not yet resolved the dispute with its wastewater-only pivot. The complaint sits unadjudicated while the operator advertises compliance to state authorities the residents cannot address directly.

Microsoft

DC Byte reports Microsoft looking to the Nordics for new capacity while Dublin's regional share falls to 15 per cent, though this is a market-intelligence inference rather than a company statement. Microsoft keeps its existing Dublin cloud region, which is costly to relocate, while directing new investment where power is cheaper and the queue is shorter.

ISO New England

ISO-NE proposed excluding new large loads from its Installed Capacity Requirement entirely, forcing data centres to bring their own generation or accept curtailment, even though New England's demand has been flat or falling for a decade. The reform is pre-emptive, written before the region has felt the strain PJM and MISO already report.

Ofgem

Ofgem opened its Data Centre Commitment Fee consultation on 29 July, arguing that free options on grid capacity let developers bank places on ten sites and abandon nine, crowding out projects that would build. It expects the deposit to filter the queue before the rule even takes final form.