Brent crude advanced above $116 per barrel on 30 March, approximately 72% above its pre-war level of $67.41.1 The monthly gain is heading for a record. Goldman Sachs maintained a $14 to $18 per barrel geopolitical risk premium is baked into the price. Global stock markets extended their selloff as Houthi entry and the US military build-up stoked prolonged-conflict fears.
The price trajectory tells the story of a market that has abandoned hope of a quick resolution. Brent settled at $112.57 on 28 March, already elevated by Houthi entry. Trump's oil seizure statement, the third consecutive Houthi attack on Israel, and Pentagon confirmation of ground operations planning pushed it above $116 two days later.
AIS tracking data paints a bleaker picture than headline prices suggest. Shadow fleet vessels account for 80% of Hormuz transits in March, up from 15% in February. Legitimate commercial traffic has effectively stopped: approximately three transits per 24 hours against a pre-war baseline of 138. The Hormuz 'reopening' is a reorganisation of traffic to benefit non-US-aligned operators, denominated in yuan, under IRGC naval supervision.
The 6 April deadline for Trump's power plant strike threat is six days away. If the deadline passes without diplomatic movement and the 82nd Airborne stages forward from Kuwait, Goldman's risk premium estimate will need revision upward. Every dollar on Brent translates to approximately 2.5 pence per litre at UK petrol pumps within a week.
