Skip to content
Welcome, thoughtbot's Giant Robots listeners!Start here
Autonomous Systems: Land & Sea
8NOV

ASML says it cannot meet 2027-28 demand

3 min read
19:26UTC

ASML sold 113 lithography systems in the third quarter on record sales of €11.66bn, and its chief executive warned that planned supply will fall short in 2027 and 2028.

← Back to UK names HII at £303m; its tender said £125mJump to analysis ↓
TechnologyDeveloping
Key takeaway

ASML's lithography output is sold out through 2028, and allocation rests with ASML and licensing states.

ASML, the Dutch company that alone makes the machines that print the most advanced chips, reported record third-quarter net sales of €11.66bn on 14 October⁠1. It sold 113 new lithography (chip-printing) systems, up from 86 in the second quarter, and narrowed full-year guidance to €44-45bn from the €43-45bn range it set in July.

Chief executive Christophe Fouquet said ASML now expects "that our supply as currently planned for both 2027 and 2028 will not fully meet the demand of our customers"⁠2. The company plans about 30% more capacity in 2027 for its standard extreme ultraviolet (EUV) machines, which the most advanced chips need, and its older deep ultraviolet (DUV) immersion machines. For 2028 it is studying capacity beyond that increase, and some customers want to book for 2029 and 2030. The squeeze arrives a month after ASML and Intel Foundry moved the next-generation High-NA EUV tools into volume production.

China took 23% of system sales in the quarter, up from 14%, according to the South China Morning Post, which put ASML's system sales to China up 109% on the quarter as memory makers stockpiled⁠3. ASML's own release mentions export controls only in its standard risk factors.

With output booked out two years ahead, the choice of which customers get the 2027 tools, and in which countries, rests with ASML under Dutch and US export licensing. No EU institution has a hand in that allocation.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

ASML is a Dutch company. It is the only firm in the world that makes the machines used to print the most advanced computer chips, using a kind of light called extreme ultraviolet (EUV). Every large chipmaker, from Taiwan to the US to China, buys from it. ASML has now said it will not be able to build enough machines to meet orders in 2027 and 2028. That matters because chips sit inside phones, cars and AI systems. If the machines are scarce, the factories that make chips cannot grow as fast as buyers want.

Deep Analysis
Root Causes

ASML's capacity cannot rise quickly because each EUV machine depends on a narrow chain of sub-suppliers, from optics to light sources, that took decades to build. A 30% step in one year is close to the limit of what that chain can absorb.

Demand is being pulled forward by two forces at once: AI data-centre chips need the newest nodes, and Chinese buyers are ordering older DUV tools before any further controls bite.

The guidance range narrowed rather than rose because supply, not orders, now sets ASML's revenue ceiling.

What could happen next?
  • Consequence

    New European fabs that have not yet booked ASML tools may face delays to 2028 or later.

    Medium term · Suggested
  • Risk

    A higher China share could renew US pressure on The Hague to widen servicing and sales limits.

    Short term · Suggested
  • Opportunity

    ASML's sub-suppliers in the Netherlands and Germany stand to gain from the planned 2027 capacity increase.

    Medium term · Assessed
Sources:ASML·South China Morning Post
Mentions:ASML →Christophe Fouquet →China →DUV lithography →Netherlands →South China Morning Post →Taiwan →Nexperia →Washington →Intel →MATCH Act →Beijing →TSMC →The Hague →
First Reported In

Update #17 · EU questions AI labs over loss of control

ASML· 22 Oct 2026
Read original →
Causes and effects
Caused by
ASML booms, Europe's fab gap holds
ASML narrowed the €43-45bn full-year guidance it set in July to €44-45bn.
Occurred 15 Jul 2026
Read story →
This Event
ASML says it cannot meet 2027-28 demand
Europe's only chokepoint supplier in chipmaking is booked out two years ahead, and the allocation of its machines sits outside any EU institution's control.
Different Perspectives
EDGE Group
EDGE Group
EDGE took control of Italian engine maker CMD in October and signed exploratory USV memorandums with Novamarine and Abu Dhabi Ship Building in early November. It is assembling an Italian hull and engine supply chain around Emirati autonomy, with no customer named.
Japan Ministry of Defense
Japan Ministry of Defense
Nikkei reported on 29 October that the ministry will start research in fiscal 2027 towards mass-producing underwater drones for detection and attack, with prototypes by fiscal 2035. The stated aim is to deter China's growing submarine fleet with fewer sailors at risk.
Kongsberg Discovery
Kongsberg Discovery
Kongsberg received a $54m DIU modification, mainly for AUV deliveries, and Camilla Kiss said the unit has signed 1.7bn Norwegian kroner of AUV contracts in 2026. The Norwegian maker sells into the US market as an established production line.
Elbit Systems
Elbit Systems
Elbit bought ISE of Vancouver, maker of more than 250 AUVs, on 20 October for a price it called not material. The Israeli group adds an underwater vehicle line to its naval business.
Defense Acquisition Program Administration
Defense Acquisition Program Administration
DAPA's 179th committee cleared a 591bn won mine-warfare USV programme on 6 November, alongside the Jangbogo-N nuclear submarine. HD Hyundai's Long Beach trial with Anduril shows Korean industry pitching hulls abroad while Seoul funds its own.
Finland National Emergency Supply Agency
Finland National Emergency Supply Agency
NESA opened an €11m competition on 4 November for radiation-sensing drones and ground robots, including quadrupeds, for the EU's rescEU stockpile. It is a civil-protection buyer using open tender, with a decision expected in March 2027.

Written with AI from Lowdown's published reporting. Not individually reviewed by an editor. Editorial standards.