OPEC+, the expanded producer alliance of OPEC members and partners led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, approved a fourth consecutive 188,000 b/d output increase for August on 5 July, holding the pace it set the previous three months. World Oil reported the seven-member subgroup made no move toward an accelerated unwind and fixed its next review for 2 August.1
The vote resolved a decision the subgroup had scheduled a few days earlier, and it caught no desk off guard. The per-country split was mechanical: Saudi Arabia and Russia each took 62,000 b/d, Iraq 26,000, Kuwait 16,000, Kazakhstan 10,000, Algeria 6,000 and Oman 5,000.2
Actual OPEC+ output has run well below quota for months on Hormuz and field constraints, so the fourth identical increment adds barrels on paper more than to the market. Al Jazeera relayed analyst Fabien Yip's reading of the hikes as a formality while the physical constraint holds.3 The group also kept its standing hedge that increases "could be accelerated, paused or reversed if necessary", carrying that optionality into the 2 August review.4
With the number already discounted, the flat price barely moved and the repricing ran through the Brent-WTI spread instead, which widened sharply in the first session after the vote.
