YouGov's final Senedd MRP projects Welsh Labour falling from 29 to 12 seats — 12% vote share, the lowest projected since the 1906 general election. First Minister Eluned Morgan is projected to fall below the threshold in her own constituency.Source: YouGov

What is Welsh Labour's 2026 Senedd manifesto?

Welsh Labour launched its manifesto on 30 March 2026 pledging a £4bn NHS investment programme, £2 bus fares, 100,000 new homes and an income tax freeze. Trade unions gave it a lukewarm reception.Source: Welsh Labour

Who is the First Minister of Wales?

Eluned Morgan has been First Minister of Wales since August 2024, when she succeeded Mark Drakeford. She is projected to fall below the entry threshold in her own constituency of Ceredigion Penfro at the 7 May election.

Background

Welsh Labour is the Welsh branch of the Labour Party, which governed Wales continuously from devolution in 1999 until the 7 May 2026 Senedd elections — the longest unbroken run of devolved government in any UK nation. The party's founding figures shaped the NHS and comprehensive education in Wales, and its Welsh Governments pursued distinctive policies including free school breakfasts, free prescriptions, and a social care statutory framework. A succession of leaders — Rhodri Morgan, Carwyn Jones, Mark Drakeford, Vaughan Gething, Eluned Morgan — each held the First Ministership until 2026. Morgan's administration launched a £4bn NHS pledge manifesto on 30 March 2026.

The 7 May 2026 election produced a historic collapse. Welsh Labour fell to 9 seats and approximately 12% of the vote — the lowest Welsh Labour vote share since the 1906 general election, down from 29 seats in the 2021 Senedd. Eluned Morgan lost her own Ceredigion Penfro seat, the first time a sitting head of a UK devolved government had been removed from their own constituency. Plaid Cymru won 43 of 96 seats and formed a minority government under Rhun ap Iorwerth.

Ken Skates took over as interim Welsh Labour leader on 9 May — the party's fourth leader in 26 months. Welsh Labour's 9 seats give it Coalition relevance in a chamber where 49 votes are needed for a majority (Plaid at 43 + Labour at 9 = 52), though any Coalition carries the political weight of governing with a party whose historical dominance just ended. The party faces an existential question about whether it can rebuild its Welsh base or has permanently ceded the progressive vote to Plaid Cymru.