Russian LNG short-term contract ban

The EU Council short-term contract ban on Russian LNG enters force on 25 April 2026, removing roughly 17 billion cubic metres per year (about 13% of EU LNG imports in the first eleven months of 2025). From that date, importers must operate under a prior-authorisation system proving non-Russian origin on every cargo, and member states have one month to notify the Commission of any remaining Russian gas contracts. Long-term contracts follow on 1 January 2027. No member state has publicly named a committed replacement supply, and March 2026 saw record EU LNG imports driven by high Russian and US volumes, consistent with front-loading ahead of the Deadline rather than a durable supply bridge.

The measure is the first EU instrument that actually blocks Russian LNG at the European border. The earlier transshipment ban of 27 March 2026 covered re-export to non-EU destinations; it did not reduce inbound Russian volumes at EU terminals. Bruegel data confirms March imports as a record high, including record US and elevated Russian deliveries, evidence that the commercial incentive to front-load was stronger than any signal from the 27 March measure. The ban passed through a qualified majority mechanism; Hungary could not veto it despite opposing further energy-sanctions tightening.

At March 2026 import levels, the ban displaces roughly 1.3-1.6 bcm per month of LNG. Replacing that volume from US flexible supply requires winning cargoes on the JKM-TTF spread, which had compressed to near parity for weeks before 15 April. QatarEnergy's Ras Laffan Force majeure remains in place and close to a dozen Atlantic cargoes diverted to Asia in the same period. The combined effect is a supply gap landing on day one of the ban rather than gradually, against an EU storage level of only 29.55% on 13 April.