Yes, per an ITV Wales poll (fieldwork 9-18 March 2026), Morgan is projected to lose her Ceredigion Penfro seat under the new closed-list PR system.Source: ITV Wales / Electoral Calculus

How many Senedd seats is Welsh Labour projected to win in 2026?

Welsh Labour is projected to fall from 29 seats to around 12 seats under the new 96-seat closed-list PR system.Source: ITV Wales MRP poll, March 2026

How does the new Senedd voting system work in 2026?

Wales switched to a closed-list proportional system with 16 constituencies each electing 6 Members of the Senedd, giving 96 seats total. Voters choose a party, not an individual candidate.Source: Senedd Research Service

Background

Eluned Morgan served as First Minister of Wales from August 2024 until 7 May 2026, succeeding Vaughan Gething as the second person to lead Welsh Labour in devolved government. A Member of the Senedd since 1999 and previously a Labour MEP for Wales (1994-1999), Morgan held ministerial roles spanning health, international relations, and mental health before reaching the highest office. She was the architect of the 2026 Senedd reform that expanded the chamber from 60 to 96 seats and replaced the Additional Member System with a Closed-list proportional representation system.

On 7 May 2026 Morgan lost her seat in Ceredigion Penfro with 6,495 votes, becoming the first sitting head of any UK Government to lose their own constituency in office. Welsh Labour fell from 29 to 9 Senedd seats, its smallest group in any devolved chamber since 1910. Plaid Cymru's Rhun ap Iorwerth was confirmed as First Minister-designate on 8 May, with Ken Skates appointed interim Welsh Labour leader within 24 hours.

Morgan's political fate carries a particular irony: the PR electoral reform her government introduced, and which she championed as a modernisation of Welsh democracy, directly produced the scale of the Labour collapse by translating a proportional vote share into proportional seats rather than inflating incumbency. Her departure from the Senedd ends Welsh Labour's 27-year continuous dominance of Welsh devolved government and resets the party's relationship with its traditional Welsh heartlands at the precise moment that relationship is most strained.