26APR

Welsh leaders debates expose immigration paradox

1 min read

13:33UTC

ITV Cymru Wales hosted the first Senedd leaders debate on Sunday 19 April; S4C and BBC Radio Cymru aired Y Ddadl Fawr on Thursday 23 April; the BBC One Wales debate is scheduled for Tuesday 28 April. Immigration dominated the ITV debate despite the Senedd having no powers over it.

← Back to 11 Days to Go: Six-of-six, RPA dies, Welsh lead flips Jump to analysis ↓

PoliticsDeveloping

Key takeaway

The Welsh debates centre on immigration, an issue the Senedd cannot legislate on.

ITV Cymru Wales hosted "Wales Decides 2026" on Sunday 19 April with all six party leaders, presented by Adrian Masters ¹. The most heated exchange came on immigration: Reform and the Conservatives were accused of "stoking divisive rhetoric". Reform Wales's Dan Thomas defended the position as "voicing the genuine concerns that the general public have in Wales". Welsh Labour First Minister Eluned Morgan interjected on Reform's claim of £40m in NHS savings: "that wouldn't pay for the NHS for half a day".

S4C and BBC Radio Cymru aired "Y Ddadl Fawr" on Thursday 23 April, presented by Bethan Rhys Roberts. The third Welsh debate, on BBC One Wales also presented by Rhys Roberts, is scheduled for Tuesday 28 April from a Cardiff studio audience. The Senedd has no immigration powers, which are reserved to Westminster, but the issue dominated the first televised exchange and is expected to recur. The Welsh ballot under the new closed-list system translates national vote share directly into Senedd seats, which makes each televised exchange a direct input into the seat allocation that the post-debate polling will register.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

Wales is about to elect a new Senedd (the Welsh Parliament) on 7 May. Before the election, all the major party leaders take part in televised debates , similar to the UK general election debates, but for Welsh politics. ITV Cymru Wales (the Welsh ITV channel) hosted the first debate on 19 April, with all six party leaders. S4C, the Welsh-language TV channel, and BBC Radio Cymru broadcast a second debate, 'Y Ddadl Fawr' (which means 'The Big Debate' in Welsh), on 23 April. A third debate on BBC One Wales is scheduled for 28 April, one week before polling day. Much of the first debate focused on immigration, despite the Senedd holding no power over it; immigration policy is set by the UK Parliament at Westminster. Reform UK's Dan Thomas argued the public cares about it regardless. First Minister Eluned Morgan (Welsh Labour) challenged Reform's claim that £40 million in NHS savings would be possible, saying it would not cover the Welsh NHS for half a day. These debates matter because polling projects that Welsh Labour, which has governed Wales since 1999, could fall from 29 to as few as 12 Senedd seats {{EVREF:/t/uk-elections-2026/3/wales-greens-projected-as-senedd-kingmakers/}}. Many voters are encountering the new parties and the new voting system for the first time.

Sources:ITV Cymru Wales

Mentions:ITV News Wales →S4C →BBC Radio Cymru →Eluned Morgan →Tinopolis →BBC One Wales →Parliament →Wales →Welsh Labour →Senedd →Reform UK →Westminster →Dan Thomas →Adrian Masters →Bethan Rhys Roberts →

First Reported In

Update #5 · 11 Days to Go: Six-of-six, RPA dies, Welsh lead flips

ITV Cymru Wales· 26 Apr 2026

Read original →

Causes and effects

This Event

Welsh leaders debates expose immigration paradox

The strongest Reform mobilisation issue runs through a chamber that cannot legislate on it, putting the Welsh debates at the centre of a campaign whose pivot issue is reserved to Westminster.

Led to

Welsh Labour at 12%, lowest since 1906

The BBC Wales debate scheduled in ID:2805 occurred on 28 April and produced the Farage minus 18 and ap Iorwerth plus 10 net ratings reported here

Occurred 28 Apr 2026

Read story →

Different Perspectives

Local Government Association

New chair Eamonn O'Brien broke the LGA's neutrality on reorganisation for the first time since December 2024, telling the incoming prime minister the 'unprecedented scale' of disaggregation risks statutory services and asking him to adjust the LGR timetable, aligning the sector's institutional voice with the judicial review claims Suffolk, Essex and Norfolk have already filed.

Reform UK

Reform's £12m Harborne windfall from 2025 predates the 25 March retrospective crypto-donation ban, so the new law does not reach it; a live police probe into £500,000 of Cottrell donations continues, while the standards inquiry into Harborne's undeclared £5m gift is frozen since Farage vacated Clacton on 8 July.

Incoming Burnham government

Burnham secured 349 of the backing the NEC's 81-MP threshold required by 13 July, becoming Labour leader on 17 July and prime minister on 20 July without a members' ballot. He now inherits the LGR timetable the LGA wants him to adjust and a finance bill his own backbencher, Liam Byrne, is trying to harden further via amendment NC34.

Rupert Lowe / Restore Britain

Lowe called Farage's Clacton contest a 'Reform-sponsored media circus' and kept Restore Britain out of it, pledging instead to stand in the second by-election he expects the Harborne inquiry to force later this year. The boycott doubles as a signal that Restore Britain, not Reform, will contest the 'real' vote.

Kemi Badenoch / Conservative Party

Badenoch dismissed Farage's Clacton contest as a 'fake by-election' and joined the boycott, but reserved the right to fight a genuine second contest if Greenberg's inquiry forces one. The Conservatives are betting their real fight comes in autumn, not July.

Rhun ap Iorwerth / Plaid Cymru

Ap Iorwerth defended a £145m NHS allocation at First Minister's Questions on 1 July, blaming a graduate-nurse shortfall on 2022 training decisions taken before his Plaid-led government took office in May. Answering for choices his government did not make gives his new administration its first real accountability test.