A YouGov/Economist survey (20-23 March) found 35% approval for Trump's economic handling; CNN polling (26-30 March) found 31% 1. Quinnipiac polling shows 75% of Americans, including 56% of Republicans, believe tariffs are raising prices. Lower-income voters have shifted 7 points toward Democrats since January 2025.
The Republican-voter figure is the one that matters for midterm projections. When a majority of the president's own base agrees that his trade policy raises their costs, the political insulation that partisanship normally provides begins to erode. The 7-point shift among lower-income voters is the transmission mechanism: tariff costs concentrate in food, fuel, and imported consumer goods, the categories that consume the largest share of lower-income household budgets.
The Georgia 14th result provides a concrete test case. Shawn Harris campaigned on the price of feed, fertiliser, and petrol, not abstract policy, in a district where those costs dominate daily life. His historic overperformance occurred in precisely the demographic and geographic territory these polls describe. The generic ballot shift to D+5.5 may reflect a national average that masks larger swings in communities where tariff exposure is most direct.
