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US Midterms 2026
11NOV

Colom tops Hyde-Smith by under 100 votes

3 min read
18:10UTC

Scott Colom led Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith by roughly 65 to 100 votes of about 945,600 counted, the closest Senate race in the country.

← Back to Late ballots flip North Carolina's 3rdJump to analysis ↓
PoliticsDeveloping
Key takeaway

Colom's lead of under 100 votes now rests on affidavit and late mail ballots due by 10 November.

Scott Colom, the Democrat, led Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith by roughly 65 to 100 votes of about 945,600 counted in Mississippi's Senate race on Wednesday 4 November⁠1. NBC showed both on 48.9% with 95.4% of the expected vote in⁠2. Colom's campaign estimates that about 15,000 affidavit ballots, cast by voters whose ID or eligibility must still be confirmed, remain to be counted⁠3.

No runoff follows. The majority rule in section 23-15-193(2) of the Mississippi Code covers only "state officers"⁠4, and the Mississippi Secretary of State's calendar keeps its 1 December runoff for judges and school boards⁠5. A plurality, the most votes even if short of half, takes the Senate seat; independent Ty Pinkins and others hold about 2.2%.

The count runs to three dates⁠6: - Tuesday 10 November, 5pm: mail ballots postmarked by 3 November must reach circuit clerks, and affidavit voters must show photo ID. - Friday 13 November: counties send certified returns to the Secretary of State. - Thursday 3 December: the Secretary of State declares the result.

The late mail ballots count because the Supreme Court upheld Mississippi's postmark grace period in Watson v. RNC in June. Mississippi holds recounts "only in the event of a court order", the Associated Press (AP) notes⁠7, so any fight over late and cured ballots goes to a judge rather than to an automatic recount.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

Mississippi is choosing one of its two US senators. The Republican incumbent, Cindy Hyde-Smith, and the Democrat, Scott Colom, are separated by fewer than 100 votes out of nearly a million. Some ballots are still out. Affidavit ballots are cast by voters whose identity or eligibility must be checked; they count only if the voter shows photo ID by 10 November. Mail ballots posted by polling day also count if they arrive by then. Mississippi has no second round for this race, so whoever ends with the most votes wins. Counties certify their totals by 13 November and the state declares the result on 3 December.

Deep Analysis
Root Causes

Mississippi's majority-and-runoff rule in section 23-15-193(2) covers only state officers, so a federal race goes to whoever has the most votes. Independent Ty Pinkins and other candidates hold about 2.2%, more than enough to keep both leaders under half.

Turnout ran about a third higher than the roughly 709,000 who voted in the 2022 midterms. A larger electorate means more affidavit and mail ballots to process, and more ballots for each side to challenge county by county.

What could happen next?
  • Risk

    A margin under 100 votes with no automatic recount makes a court fight over cured and late ballots likely.

  • Consequence

    The result is not final until the Secretary of State's declaration on 3 December.

Sources:NBC News·CBS News·CNBC
Mentions:Scott Colom →Cindy Hyde-Smith →Associated Press →Ty Pinkins →NBC News →Minnesota →Watson v. RNC →Democratic Party →Mississippi →Mississippi Secretary of State →Mississippi Code →
First Reported In

Update #23 · Democrats take the Senate and the House

NBC News· 5 Nov 2026
Read original →
Causes and effects
This Event
Colom tops Hyde-Smith by under 100 votes
Mississippi's seat decides whether Democrats hold 55 Senate seats or 54, and its rules leave no runoff and no automatic recount.
Led to
Colom's Mississippi lead widens to 2,990
The affidavit and absentee count widened Colom's polling-night lead of roughly 65 to 100 votes to 2,990.
Occurred 11 Nov 2026
Read story →
Different Perspectives
University of Florida Election Lab
University of Florida Election Lab
The lab, run by Michael McDonald, estimates about 124.3 million ballots, a raw midterm record, and turnout of about 49.4% of eligible voters, second to 2018's 50.05%. The raw record reflects population growth more than a record rate, so the late count is working through a near-2018 electorate.
Thune's critics on the right, including Senator Ron Johnson
Thune's critics on the right, including Senator Ron Johnson
Ron Johnson backed the failed 31-15 motion to delay Thune's re-election, after activists such as Mike Cernovich blamed the leader for the defeat. Their complaint is that Republicans could have passed the SAVE Act; in January it meets a Democratic Senate instead.
Senator John Thune
Senator John Thune
Thune was re-elected Senate Republican leader by acclamation on 10 November after a motion to delay failed 31-15. He kept the filibuster that stopped the SAVE Act, the choice his critics on the right blame for the defeat.
House Republicans under Jim Jordan
House Republicans under Jim Jordan
House Republicans elected Jordan minority leader by 106 votes to 73 over Steve Scalise on 10 November, after Speaker Mike Johnson declined to run. They replaced the leadership that lost the majority, while Senate Republicans kept theirs.
Donald Trump
Donald Trump
Trump asked on Truth Social on 9 November whether anybody believed the election "was honest" and blamed the machines, having told The New York Times on polling night he would accept the results. No Republican campaign had sued over a 2026 result by 10 November, so the claim has no case behind it.
Judge David O. Carter
Judge David O. Carter
Carter closed the Justice Department's suit over about 20,000 California mail ballots on 10 November after the department withdrew it, writing that the suit "attempted to disrupt an ongoing election". The closure leaves the department with no court order touching a 2026 California ballot.

Written with AI from Lowdown's published reporting. Not individually reviewed by an editor. Editorial standards.