Silver Bulletin's average put Donald Trump's net approval at minus 20.6 on 3 August, the lowest figure recorded in either of his terms, on approval of 36 per cent against disapproval of 35. Strong disapproval stood at 47.6 per cent and strong approval at 20.8.
Intensity is doing the work here rather than the topline. A gap of that size between the two strong categories describes an electorate whose opposition is far more mobilised than its support, and mobilisation is what decides midterms.
A methodological note travelled with the reading and deserves more attention than the number. Around sixty per cent of recent generic-ballot surveys sample registered rather than likely voters, and Silver Bulletin's authors judge that correcting for it would move the average above its current level. Likely-voter screens have more often shifted results toward Republicans in recent cycles, so a correction running the other way is the unusual part. For readers weighing the structural Republican advantage in maps and cash, that advantage is being assembled against a position still deteriorating underneath it.
